by Patrick Zier | Oct 16, 2025 |
It was hours before he would win the 60th race of his career, tying him for 10th all time with Kevin Harvick, and Denny Hamlin was in the drivers meeting for Sunday’s South Point 400 at Las Vegas.
A win here would guarantee him a spot in NASCAR’s championship race, give him another chance to fill in the one blank page on his resume; despite all he has accomplished in the sport Hamlin has never won a championship, and he was going over everything he needed to do to make sure he was ready.
“I have a mental checklist that I go through before I leave the bus for the drivers meeting,” Hamlin said according to the NASCAR.com website. “I check all the things I think are going to be important today (Sunday).
“One small thing just kind of slipped through the cracks. Maybe I was distracted, I don’t know,” Hamlin continued. “I was so antsy during the drivers meeting thinking ‘I’ve got to get out of here. I’ve got to get out of here because I’ve got to get back to the bus and look at something.'”
Hamlin paused. “I don’t know,” he said. “It would have just…I don’t think I could have…It would have mentally bothered me the entire race had I not gone back and looked.
“Then I would have said, ‘How did you let that slip? How were you not prepared for this? Had you known this, you would have been in a better position to win.’ It’s just the way my brain works,” Hamlin explained.
There are many reasons why, hands down, Hamlin is the best driver in the sport despite the fact he will turn 45 in November, shortly after the NASCAR Cup championship is determined at Phoenix.
But his biggest edge is preparation and execution. Nobody prepares for a race more meticulously then Hamlin, who, among other things, spends countless hours on the simulator each week. And that gives him the ability to adjust and execute on the track better than anybody else.
Which is why, at a time when a lot of drivers have hung up their helmets or are just riding around because they are no longer competitive, Hamlin is still charging to the front, still winning races – six, in fact, more than anyone in Cup this year.
But for all of that, the blank page is still there, the championship that has eluded him. And it has seemed farther away then ever since the advent of the Next Gen car in 2022, with Hamlin being eliminated after the round of eight each of the last three years.
So this will be his first shot at the title in quite a while. And while he shows no signs of slowing down, Hamlin knows he only has a limited number of opportunities left to fill in that blank page. And he doesn’t want to waste this one.
“I don’t get nervous anymore (about winning the championship)” Hamlin said. “But at some point, I will think about it. Is this my last chance to do it? Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t.
“I just know I’m going to do the work and hope it works out,” he continued. “If it doesn’t, I’m going to be OK with it. I’ve had a season that far exceeded what I thought it would,” he added.
“I don’t think I’ve been in the championship four in the Next Gen era (he hasn’t, as has already been pointed out). I can’t sit here and make false promises and things like that. I don’t have the answer (as to whether he can win or not),” Hamlin said.
“I’m going to try as hard as I can. Maybe I’ll get lucky,” he concluded. Or maybe he won’t have to be lucky. Maybe being the best driver in the sport will be good enough, and this time, he’ll finally get his chance to hoist the trophy. Because trophy or not, everybody in NASCAR knows who the champion is.
NASCAR NOTES
No race this week. The Cup cars are at Talledega, a super speedway, and Old Guy Sport does not count super speedway races in its standings because who runs well and who wins is purely determined by luck, not skill. You have to avoid the “big wreck” and be in the right lane at the right time on the last lap and the drivers and teams have virtually no control over any of that.
Last week’s OGS Las Vegas picks: 1-Denny Hamlin, 2-Chase Briscoe, 3-Kyle Larson. Last week’s Las Vegas winner: Hamlin. OGS season record after 28 races, 13-14 (no Pocono pick), .481.
OGS competition index top 10 after 28 races: 1-Hamlin 652, 2-Briscoe 507, 3-Larson 490, 4-Christopher Bell 473, 5-Ryan Blaney 409, 6-Shane van Gisbergen 368, 7-William Byron 364, 8-Chase Elliott 244, 9-Bubba Wallace 186, 10-Joey Logano 185.
by Patrick Zier | Oct 15, 2025 |
So, how good is Florida State? Well, we know they’re good enough to beat Alabama, which is pretty good. And we know they weren’t good enough to beat Pitt, which is not so good.
And whatever wave they were riding after beating ‘Bama, which was followed by the slaughtering of two lesser foes and had the ‘Noles soaring up the national rankings, is gone now.
In fact, with three losses in a row to Virginia, Miami and Pitt, there are those who are ready to pull the chair out from under Mike Norvell – again.
Norvell and his counterpart at Florida, Billy Napier, have been on pretty much the same trajectory ever since they took over at the state’s two spotlight schools, although Norvell has been on the roller coaster longer.
He looked to have made a place for himself in 2023, when he went 13-0 and won the ACC championship during the regular season. But then, despite being unbeaten, the ‘Noles weren’t picked for the playoffs, lost in the Orange Bowl to Georgia and their momentum stalled.
The end of 2023 carried over to 2024 and the ‘Noles crashed and burned in a big, big way. From 13-1 to 2-10.
So maybe, going into this season, the expectations were too high. FSU had lost most of the 13-1 team but that didn’t matter, people said. They had also lost quarterback Jordan Travis, who threw 20 touchdowns against just two picks, but that didn’t matter either, people said. Turns out it did.
And it left everyone uncertain of what was ahead. Who were these guys? Could Norvell coach ’em up or not? Was he the right guy for the job? All the old questions were back.
Then the Seminoles signed quarterback Tommy Castellanos out of the transfer portal. Brash and outspoken, Castellanos confidently predicted FSU was ready to make its mark again and created instant buzz in Tallahassee. Alabama? They don’t have Nick Saban to save them anymore, Castellanos declared.
Turns out he was right. FSU won, and went from nowhere to No.8 in the AP poll after it’s 3-0 start. Then came Virginia, a 46-38 double overtime loss, and the ‘Noles were 3-1.
And then came mighty Miami, a 28-22 loss after a furious rally which saw FSU score 19 points in the fourth quarter. Now they were 3-2. And then came Pit, and surely, this was where the ‘Noles would get back on track, turn things around. Nope. Final, Pit 34, FSU 31, and now the ‘Noles were 3-3, figured as fakes with hapless Stanford next up Saturday.
“At the end of the day we have three straight weeks finishing with a one possession loss,” Norvell commented according to FSU’s football website. “Ultimately if all falls on my shoulders that we’re not getting it done. We’ve got to see application and execution from all of us, every one of us, of what we want to look like, what we want to be and find a way to get the job done,” Norvell declared.
While many seem to see this three-game losing streak as a disaster, in reality, it is not. This is not Penn State losing to hapless UCLA and struggling Northwestern.
This is a team still trying to find itself after the bitter 2024 season. This is a team which, if it plays to its potential, could still win as many as 10 games.
It has two toughies left in Clemson and Florida, both on the road, and the Gators in particular could be problematic because both Norvell and Napier – if he is still the Florida coach at that point – could need a win to save their jobs.
But FSU, with better execution, might be 6-0 right now instead of 3-3. As Norvell pointed out, change just one possession and you change the outcome.
FSU lost to Virginia 46-38 in double overtime, but if the ‘Noles hadn’t fumbled at their own 38, setting up Virginia’s first touchdown, there might never have been overtime.
FSU lost to Miami, 28-22, but if Castellanos hadn’t been intercepted at the ‘Noles 44, setting up the ‘Canes second touchdown, the outcome might have been very different and the ‘Noles might be ranked in the nation’s top five instead of Miami.
And if FSU hadn’t fumbled at its own 49 in the fourth quarter, setting up Pitt’s tying touchdown in the Panthers’ 34-31 win, Pitt might not have gotten a 34-31 win.
“I believe this team will continue to fight,” Norvell said after the Pitt loss. “I believe you’ll get everything they have and we will get it right.”
And if they do get it right, this could still be a good year for the ‘Noles. And an even better one for Norvell.
PAT’S PICKS
FSU over Stanford: ‘Noles start the long road back.
Florida over Miss State: The Bulldogs’ bubble has burst, and there’s still a lot of fight in Florida.
Miami over Louisville: Can anybody beat Miami? Not Louisville.
USF over FAU: Until somebody proves otherwise (Memphis maybe?) the Bulls are still the best Group of Five team in the country.
UCF over West Virginia: West Virginia isn’t very good, although it somehow beat Pitt. But this is in Orlando and that should give the Knights an edge.
Last week, 3-1. For the season, 22-7, .760.
by Patrick Zier | Oct 10, 2025 |
They are jacked up in Denton, TX. Really stoked. The president of North Texas cancelled afternoon classes Friday so people could take part in the festivities leading up to the game.
This is big for the Mean Green, maybe the biggest thing to ever happen to its football program, because USF is coming to town. Yeah, you got that right. USF, as in the University of South Florida.
USF, which three years ago was an American Conference door mat, has now reached a point under Alex Golesh where teams like North Texas, which admittedly has had very limited success over the years, now regard a chance to play the Bulls as a chance to make a statement.
In Denton, with North Texas at 5-0 and dreaming of – dare we say it – a shot at the College Football Playoffs, this is critical. This is a chance, as they see it, to define their season, define their program, to prove that they belong. There’s never been anything like this around here.
“Our guys have earned the right to play in a big, meaningful game and now we’ve just got to capture the moment,” North Texas Coach Eric Morris said this week according to the North Texas football website.
“This is a really good football team that’s coming to our place on a Friday night to play in a national TV game,” Morris continued. “I think that strikes a lot of buzz for everybody around the nation.”
Well, let’s not over do it. It’ll draw eyeballs because there’s not much else to watch, although the baseball playoffs are going on. But it says something about these two programs, and particularly South Florida, about how difficult it is for any Group of Five team to climb the college football mountain.
Despite that fact that it beat perennial Group of Five power Boise State, despite the fact that it beat a solid Florida team in Gainesville, something Texas, which was supposed to be the best team in the SEC, couldn’t do; despite the fact it went toe-to-toe with Miami for a half, and Miami might be the best team in the country; and despite the fact the Bulls are ranked 24th in the nation by the AP, they really get little respect outside of Denton, TX, and a few places like that.
Sure, they’ve probably gotten more national attention than any USF team in history, and that includes the 2007 Bulls which were, at one time, ranked No. 2 in the nation, and sure, Golesh and stud quarterback Byrum Brown have been interviewed on national TV, but attention doesn’t necessarily translate into respect. Want proof? The Bulls are underdogs going into Friday’s game.
Golesh, though, has more important things to worry about as he prepares the Bulls for North Texas. For one thing, he wasn’t happy about last week’s win over Charlotte, although it appeared dominating on the scoreboard. And, he says, his players were frustrated as well.
“I walked in the locker room and it was a sight of disappointment, a sight of let-down and, I thought, for us a pivotal moment in our program where you win by four touchdowns, do some phenomenal things, and, as a group, they knew we didn’t play to our potential for four quarters,” Golesh said according to USF’s football website.
“We’ve had moments throughout the season where we’ve done that and that (the Charlotte game) was not one of them,” Golesh declared. “Consistency is what we’re looking for, and I think these guys understand where we are,” he continued.
“They understand what it’s going to take and flipped the page and went right to work on North Texas. So a lot to coach off of both in execution, the mental toughness it takes to go finish an opponent earlier in the game,” Golesh remarked.
Golesh has talked all year about how this is now a player driven team, that the leadership is coming from within and not from the coaches. And that’s a good sign.
And when you pick up what looks to be a dominating win and are disappointed in it, as a player, that demonstrates the kind of mentality you need to move up and compete with elite teams. Even if it isn’t recognized nationally. Yet.
PAT’S PICKS,
USF over North Texas: Eric Morris has the Mean Green “humming,” as USF’s Alex Golesh said, but the Bulls have played and beaten better competition, and won’t be fazed by a rowdy North Texas atmosphere.
Texas A&M over Florida: If the Gators can pull this off after beating Texas, it will be a huge achievement and a big boost to their confidence. But the schedule is still like committing football suicide.
FSU over Pitt: Pittsburgh is not Miami.
Cincinnati over UCF: UCF might surprise if this were a home game, but it is not a home game.
Last week, 4-0, for the season 19-6, .760.
by Patrick Zier | Oct 7, 2025 |
Trackhouse is in trouble. Once a bright light on the NASCAR Cup scene, Justin Marks’ team has grabbed onto the coat tails of Shane van Gisbergen and is hanging on for dear life.
Van Gisbergen won again Sunday on Charlotte’s roval, his fifth straight win on a road or street course this season. A native New Zealander with a road racing background over there, van Gisbergen has crushed Cup competitors since signing with Marks this year – but only on road courses.
Kyle Larson, second to van Gisbergen Sunday, summed it up in July while speaking to SpeedCafe.com before the race at Sonoma. “He’s so good and it’s rare that you see somebody stand out and distance themselves from the competition as much as he is,” Larson said.
“He’s way, way better than us at the road course stuff,” Larson continued. “He’s got his own technique; well, not his own because the rest of the world does it the same way – right-foot braking, clutching and all that stuff.”
NASCAR drivers, Larson said, use a different method, braking with the left foot. “You can’t teach an old dog new tricks,” Larson continued. “Like there’s zero chance I can learn to do that and even if I did, like there’s zero chance that it would be better than what I’m doing left-foot braking.”
While van Gisbergen is a 700 pound gorilla on road courses, he has real problems running ovals, which make up the vast majority of NASCAR races. In large measure, that’s because he has no prior experience on ovals, but it may also be that Marks’ team has lost the handle on the NextGen car.
When the NextGen car was first introduced in 2022, Trackhouse was on top of it, running extremely well with Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez as its drivers. Chastain was especially good, able to run with the best in the business.
That, though, was likely due to the fact that the car was new to everybody, and the elite teams – Gibbs, Hendrick and Penske – hadn’t had time to work on it.
Once they figured it out, the bright light that had been shining on Trackhouse began to flicker and dim, and now, except for van Gisbergen’s road race magic, there isn’t much to look at.
Using the OldGuySport competition index, which is much better than NASCAR’s point system at measuring how well a team is performing, we can see the decline.
In 2022 Chastain racked up 410 points and one win, fifth best in the competition index standings, and Suarez added 169 and another victory, giving Trackhouse 579 points.
In 2023 Chastain scored 385 points, again good for fifth place, with two wins and Suarez added just 57, giving Trackhouse a total of 442. And in 2024 Chastain dropped to 183, again with a win, while Suarez added 67, a total of 250 points.
And if you take van Gisbergen out of the equation, it’s getting worse this year. Going into Sunday’s race at Las Vegas, Chastain has 104 points and a win while Suarez, who is leaving the team after this season, has contributed just 43, giving Trackhouse a total of 147.
Marks’ hope is that van Gisbergen will pick up the pace on ovals, but given how poorly Chastain is running it’s obvious that Trackhouse has fallen behind on the car, and that combined with van Gisbergen’s inexperience is a double whammy.
And even if Trackhouse improves its setups, there’s no guarantee van Gisbergen will get better. As Larson noted, “you can’t teach an old dog new tricks,” and van Gisbergen is already 36 and has not shown anything to indicate he is any farther along on ovals now than he was at the beginning of the season.
“It’s kind of interesting to look at our year because in many ways there are a lot of things we felt like we had to do a lot better with this race team and I was just talking about just getting more week-in, week-out speed, unloading with more speed every seven days,” Marks said according to NASCAR’s website.
“That’s been a theme inside the building, that we just have to get better. We have to understand these cars better. We have to unload better on Saturdays and qualify better and all of that,” Marks said.
“You kind of take the fact that we feel like we’re missing something and we have to grow and learn and get better,” Marks said. “This is the winningest season in the history of the company,” he continued.
“I lot of that has to do with incredible 88 team (van Gisbergen’s five road course wins). Shane is a world-class race car driver, but it’s not just Shane, it takes everybody.
“From the guys that are building suspension and brakes and putting these cars together in the shop to Stephen’s group (van Gisbergen’s crew chief Stephen Doran) that comes out here and executes on race weekend, it’s a very, very high level of professional execution,” Marks commented.
“That’s really what we try to do, make the most of every opportunity that we’ve got, and we did that a number of times this year, which is something that everybody in the company is just incredibly proud of,” Marks declared.
The problem is Marks sounds the whole operation is functioning at a high level when in fact that only place they’re doing well is on the road courses, and the only reason they’re doing well on the road courses is because of van Gisbergen.
So, maybe Trackhouse isn’t down and out – yet – but they’re definitely down, and the referee is starting the count.
PLAYOFF PICTURE
OldGuySport picks prior to the start of the playoffs: First eight out – Shane van Gisbergen, Josh Berry, Austin Dillon, Austin Cindric, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott. Actual first eight out – van Gisbergen, Berry, Dillon, Cindric, Reddick, Chastain, Alex Bowman, Bubba Wallace. OGS record: 6-2, .750.
OGS picks prior to the start of the playoffs for final four out: Bowman, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Wallace. Last four out to be determined in next three races.
NASCAR NOTES
Three most likely winners at Las Vegas: 1-Denny Hamlin, 2-Chase Briscoe, 3-Larson. First race winner at Las Vegas: Berry. Top five at Las Vegas in first race: 1-Berry, 2-Daniel Suarez, 3-Ryan Preece, 4-William Byron, 5-Chastain.
Last week’s OGS Charlotte roval picks: 1-van Gisbergen, 2-Bell, 3-Briscoe.
Charlotte roval winner: van Gisbergen. OGS record after 27 races, 12-14, .462 (no Pocono pick).
OGS competition index top 10 after 27 races: 1-Hamlin 600 points, 2-Briscoe 478, 3-Bell 443, 4-Larson 428, 5-Ryan Blaney 409, 6-van Gisbergen 368, 7-Byron 356, 8-Elliott 244, 9-Wallace 185, Logano 185.
OGS competition index top 10 on intermediate tracks (tracks most similar to Las Vegas) 1-Hamlin 369, 2-Briscoe 297, 3-Larson 238, 4-Blaney 220, 5-Byron 186, 6-Wallace 141, 7-Bell 107, 8-Elliott 103, 9-Chastain 102, 10-Logano 89.
by Patrick Zier | Oct 3, 2025 |
Mario Cristobal can tell you about Florida State-Miami, can take you back to a time when this was more than an inter-state rivalry, when this was a game of national significance, a game that impacted all of college football almost every year. He can tell you about it because he was there.
Cristobal, now the ‘Canes coach, was on the 1989 Miami team that won the national championship with an 11-1 record. That year, the No.2 ranked ‘Canes lost to the No.9 ranked ‘Noles, 24-10, their only defeat of the season. FSU would go on to finish with 10 straight wins, but two losses at the beginning of the year cost it any chance at a national title.
And Cristobal also played for the ’91 Canes in what was not only one of the biggest games in the history of the series, but arguably one of the biggest games in the history of the sport.
In that one, FSU went in ranked No.1 and Miami No.2, with the ‘Canes winning, 17-16, after FSU missed a 34-yard field goal wide right with time running out.
That was the first of three straight games which FSU lost because it missed field goals wide right, with the victory propelling Miami to a 12-0 record and another national title. FSU would finish 10-2 and win the Cotton Bowl.
In recent years though, the game has fallen out of the national limelight, lost its luster as one or both teams struggled to remain relevant. But there are signs of a revival.
Cristobal bleeds orange and green, is old school with a modern approach and determined to bring Miami back to prominence. He currently has the ‘Canes undefeated and riding high, ranked No. 3 in the nation and, with Clemson’s collapse, the new favorite to win the ACC championship and a berth in the College Football Playoffs.
If he can get by Florida State. The ‘Noles, after a gruesome 2024 season in which they went 2-10 following their 13-1 record in 2023, are showing new signs of life.
They stunned Alabama 31-17 to open the season and ripped up inferior competition in their next two games, but lost to Virginia, 48-36, in double overtime their last time out. That dropped them to No. 18 in the AP rankings.
“This week we have a great opportunity in one of the best rivalry games in all of sports, not just college football, all of sports,” FSU Coach Mike Norvell commented this week according to FSU’s football website.
“We’re coming off a disappointing result, one of those games that, you know, you can take 20, 30 plays and if anything goes different, your final result is going to be changed,” Norvell said.
“It wouldn’t have changed the areas of improvement we’re going to have to correct, though, because obviously, there’s some things that showed up that are unacceptable to what we expect out of ourselves and how we want to play and how we want to finish,” Norvell commented.
“I’ve seen this team perform at a very high level and I know what we’re capable of,” Norvell continued, “and I have full expectations that’s what we’ll see this Saturday (against Miami),” Norvell declared.
“We’re getting ready for a very talented, physical, well-coached football team that’s playing at a high level,” Miami’s Cristobal remarked according to Miami’s athletic website. “Statistically, they’re in the top 10 (nationally) in just about every meaningful category,” Cristobal added.
There is no doubt FSU has put up some impressive stats, especially on offense. The ‘Noles lead the nation in scoring, averaging 53 points per game, and also in total offense with a 600 yards per game average.
There is some doubt, though, about how meaningful the stats are since FSU ran up big numbers in its games against East Texas A&M, a 77-3 win, and Kent State, a 66-10 victory.
Kent State didn’t win a game last year and was picked to finish last this year in the Mid-America Conference, which is a notch below FSU in the Group of Five, and East Texas A&M is a struggling member of the Southland Conference, a notch below Kent State in the Football Championship Series (FCS).
Still, FSU’s rebound and Miami’s continued resurgence have made the Miami-FSU series respectable again and once more, people are talking about the game.
Cristobal is aware of that and understands the pressures that are building up around it. It may not be like 1989 or 1991, but there is a new feeling of anticipation as these two teams get ready to meet.
Which means both Cristobal and Norvell have to keep their players grounded. “There’s not a single bit of noise, not a single bit of hype, not a single member of the audience on TV or in the stands that’s going to be able to make a play one way or the other,” Cristobal declared.
“The outcome will be determined by those who are on the field, and we’re focused on making sure we do our job to the best of our ability,” he added. So is Norvell. This is big, and they know it. FSU-Miami is back.
PAT’S PICKS
Miami over FSU: It’s in Tallahassee, and Tommy Castellanos has ignited the Seminoles. They have a good chance to grab this one. But Miami has some solid wins and the ‘Canes are more consistent.
Florida over Texas: It’s save your season time for the Gators. Thought here is that they haven’t given up and see this as a great opportunity to right the ship. Texas has a few cupcake wins and Arch Manning hasn’t settled in at quarterback.
USF over Charlotte: USF isn’t invincible but the Bulls won’t lose to Charlotte. Maybe at North Texas next week, but not to Charlotte.
Kansas over UCF: You’re not in the American anymore.
Last week, 1-1, for the season, 12-6, .667.
