by Patrick Zier | May 31, 2025 |
Richard Childress Racing (RCR) is on the ropes. Down for the count. Struggling to get back up. The once formidable organization is a shell of its former self, when it regularly competed for championships in the fearsome black No.3 driven by Dale Earnhardt.
The car is gone now and so is it’s driver and so, it seems, is whatever it was that enabled this team to stay on top for so long. For one thing, RCR clearly has struggled to adapt to the modernized NextGen version racer, which came on line in 2022.
Sure, RCR has won a few races since then and made the playoffs, but that’s more a function of the NASCAR point system, which rewards finishing over competing and lets you in the playoffs with a single win no matter how far down the standings you are.
This year though, RCR has been exposed. in 2023, RCR signed Kyle Busch to team with Austin Dillon as the organization’s lead driver. Busch’s talent has never been in doubt.
With Joe Gibbs Racing, a NASCAR powerhouse, he won at least one race every year from 2005 through 2022. And he made a seemingly seamless transition to RCR in 2023, winning three times for what had become a second-tier team.
With some changes in the shop and some shifting roles in upper management, it was thought that Busch might lead RCR out of the doldrums. And then in 2024, it all fell apart again. For the first time in his career, Busch didn’t win a single race.
Dillon did, shoving both Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin out of the way on the last lap to triumph at Richmond, but his moves were so egregious NASCAR banned him from the playoffs.
And RCR’s problems have continued this year. Heading into Sunday’s Craker Barrel 400 at Nashville, Busch has gone 70 straight races without a win and Dillon hasn’t won either. The team has only one top five, that by Busch in the season’s first race in Austin, Tx.
But again, because NASCAR rewards finishing races more than competing in them, Busch, 19th in the standings, still has a shot at the playoffs with 266 points. That’s just 14 behind Ryan Preece who is 16th, the cutoff right now.
Busch, though will likely have to win to get in, and that may be a real chore as RCR keeps blundering through race after race with messed up pit stops, messed up strategy and engine and car pieces that just don’t hold up.
“I feel like a broken record saying another difficult night for our No. 8 Chevrolet team,” Busch told NBC after a 15th place finish at Charlotte. “The weekend started with a steering issue.
“We got the pump changed and were able to make a qualifying lap but had to change the rack (the component that connects the steering wheel to the steering gear allowing for precise steering movements) and go to the rear for the start of the race,” Busch said.
“We were tight (the front of the car not wanting to turn) in dirty air (air swirling off the cars in front of him),” Busch continued. “Crew chief Randall Burnett made some changes and got it running better when I heard a loud pop. Something broke and we’re still no sure what it was.
“From that point on we were just out of it,” Busch said. “We tried making a strategy call late in the race, but we had an issue on pit road so we weren’t really able to capitalize on that,” he added.
Busch has just signed a contract extension that keeps him with RCR in 2026 and at 40, he’s near the end of this career. Whether or not RCR can put him in a competitive car for the duration is open to question, but in reality, given his age and the fact that there don’t seem to be any better openings, he’s stuck.
And while RCR seems to be in almost constant disarray, one thing is certain. RCR is not what they were. Even Dale Earnhardt would have trouble winning in these cars.
NASCAR NOTES
Three most likely winners at Nashville: 1-Kyle Larson, 2-Christopher Bell, 3-William Byron. Last year’s winner at Nashville: Joey Logano. Top five at Nashville last year: 1-Logano, 2-Zane Smith, 3-Tyler Reddick, 4-Ryan Preece, 5-Chris Buescher.
Last week’s Old Guy Sport picks: 1-Ryan Blaney, 2-Christopher Bell, 3-Kyle Larson. Charlotte winner: Ross Chastain. OGS season record: 5-5.
Top 10 in OGS competition index after 10 races: 1-Larson 291 points, 2-Bell 228, 3-Denny Hamlin 223, 4-William Byron 204, 5-Blaney 107, 6-Chastain 102, 7-Chase Briscoe 90, 8-Josh Berry 83, 9-Bubba Wallace 73, 10-Logano 73.
Top 10 on intermediate tracks (similar to Nashville) in OGS competition index: 1-Larson 176, 2-Byron 153, 3-Chastain 102, 4-Blaney 92, 5-Bell 71, 6-Briscoe 70, 7-Hamlin 68, 8-Berry 59, 9-Logano 58, Alex Bowman 58.
INDY 500
OGS Indy 500 picks: 1-Alex Polou, 2-Scott Dixon, 3-Pato O’Ward. Indy 500 winner: Polou.
by Patrick Zier | May 21, 2025 |
It was close to midnight, and Charlotte Motor Speedway was nearly deserted.
It’s light towers, serving as sentinels in the dark, still lit up the racing surface, but the grandstands had emptied and there was no sound, the roar of the race cars in the 1999 Coca-Cola 600 having long since reverberated into the night.
In the infield, the last spectators, headlights flashing as they left, were winding their way toward the tunnel which would take them out of the track and home.
Back in the garage, which was almost empty, down the aisle that led past all the tools and parts and pieces needed to put the finishing touches on a competitive stock car, Tony Stewart sat in the front of his hauler and rested on a couch. He was exhausted.
He had just run the Memorial Day double, the Indy 500, where he finished 9th, and then the Coca-Cola 600, where he was fourth. He had not completed every lap of both races, falling four short at Indy, but his performance was the best anyone had ever done to that point.
And he had put on a show at Charlotte, gutting out all 400 laps although it had been an ordeal that left Stewart completely drained. After climbing from his car, Stewart sank to his knees. He talked to no one. The only place he went afterwards was the infield care center. There, he took some ice packs and was given fluids to drink. He did not want an IV…
Running 1,100 miles on the same day requires planning. Once the checkered flag flew at Indy, Stewart was rushed to an airport where a private jet was waiting to take him to Concord, N.C., a Charlotte suburb and a 55 minute flight.
There, he boarded a helicopter for a quick trip to CMS, descending from the sky in front of a cheering throng and immediately changing into his driver’s uniform and getting ready to race – again.
For a very tired Stewart, the Coca-Cola 600 had been a test of will. He spun on the second lap, apparently for no reason. He managed to pull himself together, but as the miles went by, he started to lose focus.
It became harder and harder to run the correct line through the corners, harder and harder to keep the car from wobbling in the straights, harder and harder to pass although Stewart had really done an amazing job of that.
Forced to start dead last, 43rd, because he missed the mandatory drivers meeting, Stewart began a steady march forward. And with 90 laps to go, he was leading the race. But he couldn’t keep the lead. He was too tired, two worn out.
Now, in his hauler, everything was quiet. Only Stewart’s voice broke the silence. He had, he said, almost nothing to eat all day, and that, he thought, might have contributed to his problems. He had, he said, two mini-bagels before Indy and two power bars on the plane.
“They tried to give me another power bar during the (Charlotte) race, but did you ever try to open one of those things wearing driving gloves?” Stewart asked. “I got most of it all over me.”
In the pits, Stewart’s crew chief, Greg Zipadelli, spent almost as much time working on Stewart as he did the car. “Whenever we came in, they threw ice packs in the car and gave me a bottle to drink,” Stewart continued, still slumped on his couch.
“I kept drinking and drinking and drinking, but the bottle would get hot and I don’t think it helped much. Toward the end, I got light-headed and I was nauseous twice.
“I never use the head rest in cars, and I used the head rest the last 60, 70 laps,” Stewart went on. “I felt like I was 90 percent and leaving 10 percent on the table.”
There was a pause in the conversation as Stewart collected his thoughts. And then came the question that had to be asked.
Stewart, who had grown up in open wheel cars, was running his first season in NASCAR, teamed with Bobby Labonte at Joe Gibbs Racing, a relatively new organization that was quickly establishing itself as one of the sport’s best. Had running the Indy 500 and the Coca-Cola 600 cost him the race?
“It might have,” Stewart admitted. “Running both races wasn’t fair to these guys (his crew). They work seven days a week on my car and they deserve more. Next year, I won’t run Indy. I’m going to concentrate on the 600.
“I’m here for the long haul and much as I’d love to go back, I’m going to stick it out with these guys. These guys have been great to me. They’re my family now.”
Of course Stewart did go back, in 2001. And this time, he was ready. Gibbs, his team owner, made sure of that. He told Stewart if he was going to do the double again, he was going to do it right.
Gibbs got him a personal trainer, Stewart learned from his mistakes and this time, he finished sixth at Indy and third at Charlotte. And he ran every lap.
That’s the standard if you want to give it a go, and it’s a pretty high hurdle to get over.
NASCAR’s Kyle Larson, generally regarded as the most talented driver in American motorsports, gave it a shot last year but couldn’t pull it off, in part because of bad weather at Charlotte.
His effort paled in comparison to Stewart’s, though. At Indy, Larson ran all 200 laps and finished 18th, but that was well behind Stewart’s sixth place finish in 2001. Larson then flew back to Charlotte where the race was in a rain delay.
Justin Allgeier had started his car and was still in it when the rain came. Had the race continued, Larson was scheduled to get in after the end of the third stage, which means he would only have run 100 of the 400 laps.
Anyway, he’ll do it again this year and hope for better results. Larson has an emotionless, almost robotic approach to racing, never over reacting to anything, good or bad, and maybe that’s what it takes.
But, for whatever it’s worth, here’s a tip. When you start your day, try eating something besides mini-bagels and power bars.
NASCAR NOTES – Three most likely winners at Charlotte: 1-Ryan Blaney, 2-Christopher Bell, 3-Kyle Larson. Last year’s winner at Charlotte: Bell. Top five at Charlotte last year: 1-Bell, 2-Brad Keselowski, 3-William Byron, 4-Tyler Reddick, 5-Denny Hamlin.
Old Guy Sport’s pick last week: No pick, All-Star race.
OGS competition index top 10: 1-Larson 287 points, 2-Bell 227, 3-Hamlin 218, 4-Byron 139, 5-Blaney 107, 6-Josh Berry 83, 7-Bubba Wallace 73, 8-Joey Logano 70, 9-Reddick 67, 10-Alex Bowman 62.
OGS competition index top 10 on intermediate tracks: 1-Larson 172, 2-Blaney 92, 3-Byron 88, 4-Bell 70, 5-Hamlin 63, 6-Berry 59, 7-Logano 58, Bowman 58; 9-Ross Chastain 51, 10-Daniel Suarez 41, Wallace 41.
INDY NOTES – Three most likely winners at Indy: 1-Alex Palou, 2-Scott Dixon, 3-Pato O’Ward. Last year’s winner at Indy: Josef Newgarden. Top five at Indy last year: 1-Newgarden, 2-O’Ward, 3-Dixon, 4-Alexander Rossi, 5-Palou.
IRL point standings going into Indy: 1-Palou, 248 points, 2-Kyle Kirkwood 151, 3-Christian Lundgaard 150, 4-O’Ward 148, 5-Scott McLaughlin 137, 6-Dixon 134, 7-Will Power 128, 8-Felix Rosenqvist 125, 9-Colton Herta 104, 10-Rinus Veekay 100.
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by Patrick Zier | May 15, 2025 |
It was just after the race at Kansas, and Chad Knaus, Hendrick Motorsports vice president of competition, was talking about Kyle Larson. Heck, everybody was talking about Kyle Larson.
Larson had just finished crushing the competition, winning the race and leading 221 of the 267 laps. He is the dominant driver in NASCAR and Knaus, who is best known as the crew chief who guided Jimmie Johnson to seven NASCAR championships including five in a row, implied that led by Larson, Hendrick is now the sport’s dominant team.
“I think if you take a look at it, we’re maturing as a group,” Knaus said at a post-race press conference as reported on NASCAR’s website. “Obviously, the crew chiefs (Hendrick has four cars) are now in their third complete year of working together and our drivers are maturing and working together.
“The communication at Hendrick Motorsports has always been high, but I don’t think it’s ever been as high as it is now,” Knaus continued. “It’s something great to be part of.
“We’ve got Tom Gray, who is our technical director and he’s doing a really good job in his role and obviously, our leadership is just awesome with Mr. H (Rick Hendrick) and Jeff Gordon and Jeff Andrews,” Knaus said.
It’s easy to push Hendrick to the front. It’s been an elite team for years and few would argue that it isn’t the best team now. But is it?
The NASCAR point system, which is used to determine the sport’s champion, says it is. All four Hendrick drivers, Larson (1st), William Byron (2nd), Chase Elliott (4th) and Alex Bowman (8th) are in the top 10.
But the NASCAR point system has never been about determining who’s the best, it’s all about keeping as many drivers in the championship chase for as long as possible.
Points are awarded based on where you finish, not how you compete. Although there are some add-ons, you get 40 points for a win, 35 for second and one point less for each position after that. So, if you rack up a bunch of top 10s, which the Hendrick cars have done, you’re going to be in good shape.
Combined, the four Hendrick cars have 29 top 10s in the first 12 races. Joe Gibbs Racing’s four cars have 21, and Penske’s four (including the Wood brothers entry, which has a close alignment with Penske) have 15.
None of this, though, really tells you much about who is competitive and who isn’t. In NASCAR, you can finish 10th, never lead a lap and collect 27 points and someone else can lead 100 laps, get wrecked, finish 35th and get only two.
The Old Guy Sport competition index uses a totally different system to determine who’s competitive and who’s not. It produces very different results than NASCAR because it relies mainly on top five finishes and leading laps under green.
Take Elliott for example. While he’s fourth in NASCAR’s standings with 378 points, 91 behind leader Larson’s 469, he has only 50 points in the OGS competition index, putting him 237 behind Larson, who also leads OGS with 287.
The OGS competition index also shows Larson is not as dominant as it may seem and Hendrick is not in a class by itself as a team. Again, using the OGS model instead of NASCAR, until he won Kansas, Larson was second in the OGS competition index behind Denny Hamlin. And Byron and Christopher Bell are competitive with him as well.
This is not to say Larson isn’t the best driver in the sport, he probably is, but racing is a fickle mistress and there are things out of your control which affect the outcome.
For example, Larson has never won a championship in the Next Gen car, which came on line in 2022. In part, this is because NASCAR’s playoff system, patterned after those in team sports, doesn’t work in racing because it is unforgiving.
A quarterback can throw two interceptions in the first quarter of the Super Bowl to put his team behind, then come back in the fourth with a touchdown pass to win the game.
Not in racing. You can have the best car in the race but if somebody knocks you into the wall, you’re done.
The OGS competition index does not use a playoff system and counts all its races equally, and using that format, Larson has been the champion the last two years in a row. The NASCAR champion last year was Joey Logano, who ranked 15th in points going into the playoff.
And while Knaus and others praise Hendrick’s team effort, it is really Larson who is keeping them on top this year. Hendrick’s success is not a team effort. It is a Larson effort, although you would never know it using NASCAR’s system.
Using NASCAR, the four Hendrick drivers, Larson, Byron, Elliott and Bowman, have scored 1,606 points, of which Larson has 469. Joe Gibbs Racing, with Hamlin, Bell, Chase Briscoe and Ty Gibbs, has 1,325 led by Bell’s 384.
But the OGS competition index presents a very different picture. To begin with, JGR is actually very competitive with Hendrick, totaling 535 points to Hendrick’s 538. And of Hendrick’s 538, Larson has a whopping 287. Bell leads Gibbs with 227 and Hamlin has 218.
So, Hendrick really isn’t some 500-pound gorilla smashing everything in sight. Gibbs, particularly with Hamlin and Bell, will hit you pretty hard, too. Larson may get the headlines, but he doesn’t always get the win. And neither does Hendrick.
NASCAR NOTES: All-Star race this week. Does not count in OGS competition index standings.
Last week’s OGS Kansas picks: 1-Kyle Larson, 2-William Byron, 3-Ryan Blaney. Kansas winner: Larson. OGS season record: 5-4.
OGS competition index top 10: 1-Larson 287 points, 2-Christopher Bell 227, 3-Denny Hamlin 218, 4-Byron 139, 5-Blaney 107, 6-Josh Berry 83, 7-Bubba Wallace 73, 8-Joey Logano 70, 9-Tyler Reddick 67, 10-Alex Bowman 62.
OGS competition index top 10 on intermediate tracks: 1-Larson 172 points, 2-Blaney 92, 3-Byron 88, 4-Bell 70, 5-Hamlin 63, 6-Berry 59, 7-Logano 58, Bowman 58, 9-Ross Chastain 51, 10-Wallace 41, Daniel Suarez 41.
by Patrick Zier | May 11, 2025 |
They were not, frankly, a very good team. Alabama-Birmingham (UAB) would finish the season 3-9, but here they were leading South Florida, 9-7, as the third quarter began.
USF kicked off, and UAB started at its own 35. Three plays, 1:15 later the score was UAB 16, USF 7 as a dazed Bulls defense left the field after giving up a 12-yard run, a 38-yard pass and a 15-yard pass for the touchdown.
Explosive plays. They have become the name of the game in college football. Some think they may be the most important statistic of all as far as determining who wins and who loses. There are various definitions of what constitutes an explosive play, but generally, any pass of 15 or more yards and any run of 10 yards or more qualifies.
For the moment, we will forget about the runs and concentrate solely on chunk yardage passes, because they absolutely killed USF.
Eventually, USF won the game against UAB, but the Blazers stayed in it right to the end because they had 15 passes of 15 or more yards and another 10 of 10 yards or more.
And this was not an outlier, it happened a lot. If USF wants to move up and gain elite status in the Group of Five or even the American Athletic Conference (AAC) specifically, this has to stop.
There are a number of teams USF has to beat to reach the top tier, and two of them are Tulane, a rising conference power, and Memphis, which has been consistently good for many years. In 2024, Memphis was 11-2 overall and 6-2 in the AAC while Tulane was 7-1 in the conference and 9-5 overall.
In USF’s 21-3 loss to Memphis, quarterback Seth Henigan only threw for 208 yards, but he was 11 of 13 for 130 yards with two tosses of 15 or more yards and one of 10 on Memphis’ two touchdown drives in the first quarter. Overall, four of his completions went for 15 yards or more and he had two of 10 or better.
Tulane simply embarrassed the Bulls, winning 45-10. Quarterback Darian Mensah was 18-of-22 for 326 yards and in the first half, when Tulane built a 31-7 lead, he had nine throws of 15 yards or more and three that went for 10 or better.
Auburndale’s Jaelen Stokes has been around a while and was part of all this. In his final season at USF, he has played in all 26 games the last two years and started 11. He is part of an experienced secondary that knows it has to play better.
“I feel like defensively, we have to work on the back end,” he commented. “Like we have to work on not getting picked and rubbed (getting beat physically). That’s why we gave up a lot of big plays in the passing game last year.
“We need to get that off our plate and eliminate that from our game,” Stokes continued. “We’re really trying to make it (playing physically) a strength, not a weakness.
“Like just playing as a whole defense and knowing where you’ve got to be so you don’t hit one of your own players and basically knock them off the route,” Stokes remarked.
“On the back end (in the secondary) we’ve harped on staying of top of everybody (the receivers) and trying not to give anything up,” Stokes said.
“Honestly, we’re trying to make it easier for our D-line to eat. If the D-line eats we all eat, know what I’m saying?” Stokes went on.
“So, just trying to make it easier for those guys to have more time to force the quarterback to make a bad decision that helps us.”
Stokes is trying to help instill that philosophy in the younger players, mentoring them, emphasizing the importance of keeping explosive plays in check. While he may not project as a starter, he is still an important piece of the back end defense and has something to contribute.
And if he can help the secondary do a better job of smothering opposing receivers, preventing the chunk play, then USF will have a better chance to take a step up.
“I just want to play my role,” Stokes said. “Just do anything I can to help the defense.” And Lord knows, the defense definitely heeds help
by Patrick Zier | May 7, 2025 |
Chase Elliott is the poster boy for what’s wrong with NASCAR’s current point system. Despite the fact that he has not won a race, has led only 45 laps, 42 of which came at Martinsville and three of which are on super speedways where you can’t pass by yourself; and has only three top five finishes, Elliott is fourth in the current standings.
From a competitive standpoint, Elliott is way off the mark. But he doesn’t get into wrecks, his pit crew keeps the car running if something goes wrong, and he finishes races. All 11 of them so far. And that’s what you have to do to rack up points.
The Old Guy Sport competition index gives a more realistic picture of Elliott’s problems. The OGS competition index has Denny Hamlin first with 218 points, Kyle Larson second with 212, Christopher Bell third with 187 and William Byron fourth with 141. They’re the clear leaders. Elliott is way behind them in 12th place with just 45 points.
Elliott is currently in the throes of a 38 race winless streak, having last won at Texas in 2024. Prior to that win, he had gone 42 races without a victory. That means Elliott has now won only one race in his last 81 starts.
He has a contract with Hendrick Motorsports that goes through 2027. And he won’t be 30 until this November despite the fact he already has 10 full years of cup competition and won the NASCAR championship in 2020. He should be in his prime, but…
His performance of late is making a lot of people nervous. Elliott is, generally speaking, an easy going guy. Some wonder if he can still be competitive in the new cut throat era that was ushered in with the NextGen car in 2022.
There was a lot of buzz around Elliott’s return to Texas, where he got his last win last year, but Elliott, who is a realist if nothing else, pointed out that winning at Texas a year ago and racing at Texas in 2025 had little in common.
“It was 12 months ago,” Elliott said as reported by NASCAR’s website and Fox sports among others. “A lot changes in a year, and things that we are working on behind the scenes, whether its setups or race strategy of what ever it is, that is going to outweigh something that went on 12 months ago.
“It’s hard to reflect that far back and think that ‘Oh, we’ll just do what we did last year’ and that’s going to be perfect because most of the time that’s not the case,” Elliott said.
Elliott ended up 16th at Texas, continuing a familiar pattern of finishing races but essentially not being competitive. Once again, he failed to lead a lap.
Of the 12 drivers on the three elite teams, Gibbs, Hendrick and Penske (We’re counting Josh Berry as a Penske car even though he drives for the Wood brothers because the team is closely aligned with Penske) Elliott ranks 10th in laps led.
He’s well behind teammates Larson, who has led 596 laps, and Byron, with 386. Even Alex Bowman, who has struggled more than Elliott, has led 108. While it’s not a perfect indicator, leading laps means you’re putting yourself in position to win, giving yourself a chance, and the way he’s running now, Elliott has no chance at all.
“All you can do when you’re in this fight is just keep showing up, make sure you’re prepared to just show up on any given weekend and put together a solid day,” Elliott continued.
“But its all got to come together at the right time,” he stressed. “I have to do my job. We’ve got to call good races in the box. We have to have good pit stops.
“I’m no different than anybody else on our team,” Elliott said. “We want more, I think we’re capable of more. We have high expectations. We are proud of the good runs we’ve had, but we know there’s more in the tank.
“The season’s still very early, and we’ve seen enough high spots to kind of give us hope,” he added. Hoping you can win, though, is one thing. Going out and doing it is something else. Elliott’s last 81 races have proven that.
NASCAR NOTES: Three most likely winners at Kansas – 1-Kyle Larson, 2-William Byron, 3-Ryan Blaney. Last year’s winners at Kansas – First race, Larson. Second race, Ross Chastain. Top five in first race last year – 1-Larson, 2-Chris Buescher, 3-Chase Elliott, 4-Martin Truex, 5-Denny Hamlin.
Last week’s OGS Texas picks – 1-Byron, 2-Larson, 3-Hamlin. Texas winner – Joey Logano. OGS season record – 4-4.
Top 10 in OGS competition index after eight races – 1-Hamlin 218 points; 2-Larson 212, 3-Christopher Bell 187, 4-Byron 141, 5-Josh Berry 83, 6-Blaney 77, 7-Bubba Wallace 73, 8-Logano 70, 9-Tyler Reddick 67, 10-Alex Bowman 52.
Top 10 in OGS competition index on intermediate tracks after four races – 1-Larson 97, 2-Byron 88, 3-Hamlin 63, 4-Blaney 62, 5-Berry 59, 6-Logano 58, 7-Chastain 51, 8-Bowman 48, 9-Wallace, Daniel Suarez 41.
