by Patrick Zier | Sep 26, 2025 |
The face of Ford racing is not Joey Logano, although he’s out front a lot. And it’s not Brand Keselowski either, although he often has insightful comments about Ford and racing in general.
The face of Ford racing is Ryan Blaney, the first driver to advance to the round of eight in NASCAR’s Cup playoffs with his victory last Sunday at New Hampshire. The generally laid back Blaney has been, almost unnoticed, carrying Ford on his back for the last three years. And he could well be the most underrated driver in the sport.
Oh, he gets some props. After all, he did win the NASCAR Cup championship in 2023. In fact, with Logano bookending him in 2022 and 2024 Ford’s Team Penske has won three straight championships, which shows just how meaningless that trophy is.
Because outside of 2022 when the Nest Gen car was introduced and it was pretty much hit and miss as to how to get the most out of it, Ford has struggled to compete in the new model, and it’s certainly not at the level of Hendrick Motorsports or Joe Gibbs racing, NASCAR’s two elite teams and top rivals.
The three championships and a number of race wins kind of mask Ford’s struggles. From the start, the car’s nose was aerodynamically inferior to Chevy and Toyota, especially on the intermediate tracks that are NASCAR’s bread and butter.
So NASCAR allowed Ford to redesign the nose, bumper and front fenders this year in an effort to improve performance. And there are signs Ford has gotten better.
This is particularly true of the Wood Brothers, who have a close technical alliance with Ford and Penske and have gotten a big boost from Josh Berry, who replaced Harrison Burton in their car this season.
Still, if you use the Old Guy Sport competition index as a measuring stick, Ford has a ways to go to get competitive with Hendrick and particularly Gibbs, although this isn’t necessarily reflected in the NASCAR standings.
But the OGS competition index is a better measure of competitiveness than the NASCAR point system because it’s based on who’s leading laps and scoring top five finishes, whereas NASCAR awards points based on finishing races. And where you finish gives very little indication of how you ran.
Looking at Penske’s performance over the past three years, you see how big a part Blaney has played in whatever success Penske and Ford have have had. Discounting super speedway races, which depend on avoiding the big wreck and being in the right place at the right time on the last lap to get a good finish, and are therefore no measure of how well a driver or team run, Blaney’s performance is outstanding by almost any valid statistical measure.
Over the last three years, the four Penske cars (including the Wood Brothers entry) have scored 2,269 points according to the OGS competition index. Blaney has 1,111, or almost half, by himself. He is the only Penske driver to finish in the OGS top 10 all three years and the only Penske driver to improve his point totals every season.
Going into Sunday’s race at Kansas, Blaney stands third in OGS points with 408, just behind Chase Briscoe’s 455 in second. And again, going into Kansas, Blaney has seven wins and 27 top fives over the past three years per OGS scoring, more than the rest of the Penske team combined.
Logano has four wins and 19 top fives, Austin Cindric one win and four top fives and the Wood Brothers entry has one win and three top fives. Combined, that gives them a total of six wins and 26 top fives.
Speaking recently on Kevin Harvick’s Happy Hour, Blaney talked about his success. “These guys (his team) are great, I’ve said it for years,” Blaney commented. “All the guys on the 12 team are awesome.
“Jonathan (crew chief Jonathan Hassler) is unbelievable. It’s been a pleasure to work with them for as long as I have and continue to get better. These guys continue to refine their craft and become closely bonded and trust each other,” Blaney said. “You have 100 percent trust already but it continues to build with time.
“It’s fun to go to work with these guys every week and just have a good time with it and understand when you’re in the trenches, you’re in it together,” Blaney continued.
“We lift each other up when things aren’t going good and support each other, and when things are going great, you’re having a fun time. It’s just a huge testament to them,” Blaney declared.
“It makes me look good. I get to drive a really fast race car; that’s where it starts, giving me fast race cars, I appreciate that.
“Penske has done a bang-up job of it and hopefully we can continue building on some of the momentum through these next couple of races and then the rounds to come, the races to come,” Blaney said.
In the past, the legitimacy of some of Penske’s championships have been questioned because they don’t do much during the season and then come alive for the playoffs.
But if Blaney wins it all, there can be no question. Put him in a fast car and he runs fast, from the very first race to the very last. He can be as good as anybody. He’s proven that.
NASCAR NOTES
Three most likely winners at Kansas: 1-Denny Hamlin, 2-Chase Briscoe, 3-Kyle Larson. First race winner at Kansas: Larson. Top five at Kansas in first race: 1-Larson, 2-Christopher Bell, 3-Ryan Blaney, 4-Chase Briscoe, 5-Alex Bowman.
Last week’s Old Guy Sport New Hampshire picks: 1-Hamlin, 2-Bell, 3-Larson. Last week’s New Hampshire winner: Blaney. OGS competition index record after 25 races: 11-13, .458, (No Pocono pick).
OGS competition index top 10: 1-Hamlin 536 points, 2-Briscoe 455, 3-Blaney 408, 4-Bell 377, 5-Larson 376, 6-William Byron 356, 7-Shane van Gisbergen 295, 8-Chase Elliott 190, 9-Joey Logano 185, 10-Bubba Wallace 174.
OGS competition index top 10 on intermediate tracks (tracks similar to Kansas): 1-Hamlin 305, 2-Briscoe 274, 3-Larson 238, 4-Blaney 220, 5-Byron 186, 6-Wallace 130, 7-Ross Chastain 102, 8-Logano 89, 9-Tyler Reddick 73, 10-Bowman 64, Chris Buescher 64.
by Patrick Zier | Sep 19, 2025 |
It’s still there. Hanging in the air a little bit despite the fact that South Florida has moved on, which is all it can do after being demolished by Miami last Saturday.
Unless this team takes a tremendous step backward, USF will be ready for South Carolina State because that’s the next game on the schedule. That’s the thought process, the culture its coach, Alex Golesh, is building here.
You prepare for every opponent in the same way, whether it’s South Carolina State, a Championship Subdivision team which, in college football’s hierarchy, is a step down from USF, or Miami, which might be the best team in the country.
But even Golesh admitted the Miami game left a bad taste in his players mouths, in his mouth. It lingered longer, festered more, because the Bulls went into the Miami game with high hopes.
They had opened the season by knocking off two nationally ranked teams, Boise State and Florida, and beating Florida meant a lot because Florida, although it has stumbled a bit of late, is still the patriarch of college football in this state.
And next was Miami, and Miami has become good, very good, in the conversation as a possible national champion. And the question was, how would the Bulls measure up?
Golesh is succeeding at South Florida in part because he is getting his team view all its opponents objectively, and without emotion. You don’t look at Miami any differently than you do South Carolina State. That’s part of the “process” Golesh has hammered into his players week after week, game after game, and they are finally starting to understand it.
So USF did not fear Miami, did not think it had to do something out of the ordinary to win. This is a team which believes in itself.
But still, the implications of this game were clear, unavoidable. The first two wins had gotten USF national attention. If USF could beat Miami after beating Boise and Florida; well, the possibilities were almost unlimited.
And while USF’s players may be process driven, they are not robots. Neither are the coaches, or anybody else connected with the program. This was a chance to make a statement for this team and this school, and everyone was aware of that.
So it took a little longer to get over this loss than most. It carried over through the weekend because it was a missed opportunity.
Despite being outplayed for almost the entire game, USF managed to hang around for most of the first half. Nico Grammatica’s field goal made it 14-6 at one point in the second, putting the Bulls within a score, giving them some hope, and then it all came apart.
“That one (the Miami game) hurt, I think in so many ways, because it was a huge game in state against a really, really good football team and we didn’t play to the standard we wanted to play to,” Golesh commented on USF’s football website before he started concentrating on South Carolina State.
“So we had to handle it on Saturday night. We handled it on Sunday and I think even going into Monday morning up to our team meeting,” Golesh said. “We had to snap out of it, I had to snap out of it, we all had to snap out of it knowing that there’s a ton of football left.
“We haven’t even started conference play,” Golesh continued. “The fact that we’re playing a meaningful game like that that early in the season is certainly an indication we’re making strides as a program.
“The last part of it, and I said it after the game and I said it to our guys and I repeated it again on Monday morning, we as a program are going to be in that situation again and ultimately, I think until you’re in those situations over and over again, it’s really hard to simulate the level of focus, the level of precision that it takes to beat a team like that,” Golesh remarked.
“And again, I think they (Miami) are a really good team, I think a really complete team but ultimately, I think in a lot of ways, we are as well. And we’re gonna be in that situation again and the standard would be to certainly play better,” Golesh said.
And while there are no more Miamis on the schedule, there are a couple of good teams. And with wins over Boise and Florida in their pocket, the Bulls are still in position to make this the best season they’ve had. Ever.
by Patrick Zier | Sep 19, 2025 |
Maybe he thought he needed to boost his team’s morale, or maybe he thought it would quiet a disgruntled fan base, but if you didn’t know the final score, you might have thought Florida beat LSU last Saturday after listening to Coach Billy Napier’s opening remarks at his weekly media session Monday.
Defense? “I was really impressed with our defensive play,” Napier commented according to Florida’s football website. Special teams? “I think out special teams play was really good,” Napier remarked. Offense? Well, there might have been some problems with “consistency,” according to Napier, but “we were physical, we were tough, we were aggressive” although “obviously, we didn’t score enough points.”
Those were some of the highlights, which Napier proceeded to back up with more specific examples as he continued on.
Florida will have to be all those things (physical, tough, aggressive) and more as it prepares to play mighty Miami down there Saturday. Florida goes into this one 1-2. Miami is 3-0, ranked No. 4 in the country by the AP and has wins over Notre Dame and South Florida, which beat Florida earlier in the season.
This is virtually a must-win game for Napier, who some thought saved his job by getting the Gators turned around and to a bowl at the end of last season, finishing with four straight victories.
The streak went to five with the obliteration of Long Island U in the first game this year, but then came upstart South Florida, penciled in as another win before the Gators had to chomp down on a brutal schedule which started at LSU.
The expectations for Napier and this team, based on the fast finish in 2024, were that it would contend for the SEC championship and the College Football Playoffs. The reality is that the Gators are starring at a third loss in four games, which would pretty much wipe out any hopes of a resurgence in 2025 and leave Napier hanging on to his job by his fingernails.
Down Miami way, Hurricanes Coach Mario Cristobal has no such problems – which isn’t to say he’s home totally free. Cristobal remembers the Miami glory years and played on two national championship teams (1989 and 1991).
He took the Miami job determined to put the Hurricanes back in the national spotlight and he has done that, although there was some disappointment last year when the spotlight flickered and went out after a Hurricane warning was issued when Miami got off to a 9-0 start but failed to make the playoffs.
No matter. Cristobal thinks this is his best team yet.
“I think it’s spearheaded by everybody from players to staff being on the same page,” Cristobal commented before the Florida game according to Miami’s football website.
“Really, the only thing that matters to us right now is being focused on our job and not letting anything get in the way or anyone get in the way of doing out job,” Cristobal said. “So that’s been our focus. It’s that simple.
“I think the combination of continuity in the right spots and change in the right spots, as well as acquiring the right type of talent and really mature mentalities as it relates to being a professional in your approach to the game, understanding what lies on the other side if you don’t prepare at the highest level, if you don’t treat every single opponent with the same amount of respect, that’s contagious,” Cristobal said.
“So what you see is, I think, guys are playing more and more not only together but for each other,” Cristobal explained. “We’ve got a long way to go but we certainly have come a long way from that standpoint. And we’ll continue working on that mentality until it looks exactly the way it’s supposed to look,” Cristobal declared.
While Cristobal is figuring out how to get the CFP berth that eluded him last year, Napier is trying to figure out how to save his job. “Just looking at the tape, we need to find a way to play with more consistency on offense,” he said.
The offense was supposed to be built around multi-talented quarterback DJ Lagway, but Lagway missed spring practice while recovering from injury, was limited a bit in the fall and has yet to recover his flash and form. He threw five interceptions against LSU. “I’ve got to do a better job helping DJ,” Napier admitted.
“I do think that defensively, we have a very solid unit,” Napier went on. “And I think we have the ability to create some advantages in the kicking game. We’ve got to continue to evolve as DJ gets more and more (game) time, more and more work,” Napier declared. “I think we’re really. really close,” he added.
But, as they say, close only counts in horse shoes.
PAT’S PICKS
Miami over Florida: Another nail in Billy Napier’s coffin.
FSU over Kent State: Who are these guys? They knock off Alabama 31-17 and crush East Texas A&M 77-3. What happened to the team that went 2-10 a year ago? There’s got to be a phone booth around here someplace.
USF over South Carolina State: Alex Golesh has this team on track. They might lose, but they won’t lose to anybody they’re supposed to beat.
UCF over North Carolina: How good is UCF? I don’t know. How good is North Carolina? I don’t know that, either.
Last week: 2-1. For the season: 7-5, .543.
by Patrick Zier | Sep 18, 2025 |
Christopher Bell was furious, and Christopher Bell normally doesn’t get furious. But here he was, at the end of the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway just outside St. Louis, and he had finished seventh. And Bell doesn’t like to finish seventh.
Maybe nothing would have happened if his crew chief, Adam Stevens, hadn’t gotten on the team radio about then. After all, Bell has had a very good year.
He ranks third in the Old Guy Sport competition index, which is a better method of determining competitiveness than the NASCAR system because it excludes superspeedway races, which depend on avoiding the big wreck and luck to determine who’s runs in front and who wins.
“That’s what we needed today,” Stevens said of the seventh place finish according to NBC Sports. “Takes the pressure off next week. Good job guys.”
Bell went ballistic. “We just (expletive) ran seventh with the best car on the track,” he said. “Every (expletive) week it’s the same (expletive). We’re the last car to pit road. I’m over it.”
Later, Bell calmed down a bit. But he didn’t back off. “I don’t think it’s about winning races (at the time, before his win at Bristol, he had won three),” he commented.
“Certainly that’s an important part of it,” Bell went on. “But if I was consistently leading laps and in position to win then I never would have been frustrated.
“But the fact of the matter is I haven’t been in position to win races,” Bell emphasized. “I haven’t led laps. It seems my teammates (Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe) are leading almost every lap and they’re getting results. It’s less about winning races and more about being in position to do well and we haven’t done that,” Bell remarked according to NBC Sports.
Bell snapped out of his funk by winning last Saturday at Bristol and advancing to the second round of the NASCAR Playoffs along with Hamlin and Briscoe, but he has a point.
In the 22 races, including Bristol, counted by OGS since Bell won three straight to start the season, Bell has led laps under green in just five of them. Hamlin has led green flag laps in 10 and Briscoe in 11.
Using the OGS competition index scoring system, Bell has only 13 points in those five races. Hamlin has 76 and Briscoe 93, which means they have been running up front a lot more than Bell. And if you run up front during the race, you have a much better chance of being up front at the end of the race.
Stevens, who won NASCAR Cup championships with Kyle Busch in 2015 and 2019, understands Bell’s frustration but says it’s part of the sport.
“We’re all big boys trying to do a hard job and we have every tool and every piece of the puzzle to do it,” Stevens commented according to NASCAR’s website. “You just have to go track by track and week by week.
“I don’t think there’s a reoccurring thing here,” Stevens continued, referring to Bell’s inability to lead laps. “We’ve had speed. We’ve suffered in execution here and there.
“But there’s lot of races and lots of tracks on the schedule, so you’ve got to take it all in stride. There’s 37 weekends if you count the All-Star race, and you’re not going to win them all,” Stevens said. “It comes and goes just like anything else in professional sports.”
Bell felt a little better after winning Bristol, which kind of overshadowed the fact that once again, he was not able to lead laps. “This was a total team win,” Bell said after the race according to NASCAR’s website.
“I mean with all the pit stops, if you had one mishap you were going to be in trouble. A lot of good calls went into winning this race,” Bell went on. “Having the right pit strategies, putting tires on at the right time. Adam and the engineers did an amazing job of making the right calls at the right time and it worked out for us this week.”
So, for the moment, all’s well that ends well. At least this week anyway.
PREDICTING THE PLAYOFFS
OGS competition index first four out: Shane van Gisbergen, Josh Berry, Austin Dillon, Austin Cindric. First four out: van Gisbergen, Berry, Dillon, Alex Bowman. OGS record: 3-1, .750. OGS pre-playoff second four out: Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Bill Elliott.
The Hendrick cars are really struggling right now. Using the OGS competition index as a measuring stick, Over the last 10 races, Kyle Larson has scored 74 points, William Byron 89, Elliott 87 and Bowman 71. Over the same period, JGR’s Denny Hamlin has 172 points, Chase Briscoe 285 (almost as many as all the Hendrick cars put together), Christopher Bell 108 and Ty Gibbs 64.
NASCAR NOTES
Most likely winners at New Hampshire: 1-Hamlin, 2-Bell, 3-Larson. Last year’s winner at New Hampshire: Bell. Top five at New Hampshire last year: 1-Bell, 2-Briscoe, 3-Berry, 4-Larson, 5-Chris Buescher.
Last week’s OGS Bristol picks: 1-Hamlin, 2-Larson, 3-Briscoe. Bristol winner: Bell. OGS season record after 23 races (No Pocono pick) 11-12, .480.
Top 10 in OGS competition index: 1-Hamlin 536 points, 2-Briscoe 453, 3-Bell 377, 4-Larson 375, 5-Blaney 337, 6-Byron 326, 7-van Gisbergen 295, 8-Elliott 179, 9-Bubba Wallace 174, 10-Bowman 158.
Top 10 in OGS competition index on short tracks (tracks most like New Hampshire): 1-Hamlin 211 points, 2-Bell 161, 3-Larson 136, 4-Briscoe 120, 5-Blaney 95, 6-Byron 80, Brad Keselowski 80, 8-Bowman 74, 9-Gibbs 54, 10-Elliott 50.
by Patrick Zier | Sep 11, 2025 |
TAMPA – It was a game the Florida Gators had to win. They didn’t. It was a game the South Florida Bulls didn’t have to win. They did. And as a result, the football futures of both these teams are now reversed as they look ahead to Saturday.
Florida, a team which essentially had to contend for an SEC championship and the College Football Playoffs to take the pressure off the program and Coach Billy Napier, is now standing in quicksand and looks about to go under.
It could happen at LSU, next up for the Gators in Baton Rouge, and if it doesn’t happen there, it could happen the next week when they play Miami, or a couple weeks after that when they play Texas, or, well, you get the picture.
The schedule is brutal, and after the unexpected loss to South Florida, it looks like a death sentence for Florida. Already, Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin is being pushed forward as Napier’s potential replacement.
The Bulls, on the other hand, had no such expectations. There were high hopes that they would be better, but there was no real pressure on the team or its coach, Alex Golesh.
Now though, with wins over then-ranked No. 25 Boise State and then-ranked No. 13 Florida, the Bulls are the talk of the town. The talk of a lot of towns, actually. Up next is No. 5 Miami, and if the Bulls get a third straight victory over a nationally ranked team, who knows what will happen?
This is big. Why? Because this team now has a legitimate chance to make the CFP as the representative of the Group of Five conferences.
So this bigger than the 6-0 start in 2007, which was triggered by an unexpected victory at 17th ranked Auburn and eventually saw the Bulls reach No. 2 in the country before they collapsed in the second half of the season.
Even though it’s a very small sample, one of the more curious aspects of this is that with the wins over Boise State and Florida, USF seems to have established some national credibility.
That never happened at Central Florida in 2017, for example, when UCF was pretty much in the same place USF is now and went 13-0 including a win over No. 7 Auburn in the Peach Bowl.
Instead, UCF was laughed at for claiming the national title and even when the Knights backed that up the next year by going 12-1, running off 12 straight victories to give them 25 in a row before losing to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl, it was generally regarded as an aberration.
But USF seems to have overcome that. Maybe it’s because Boise is generally regarded as the Alabama of the Group of Five and Florida is, well, Florida and that game was on national TV for all to see. Still, it seems unusual that two big wins are enough to legitimize the program when two really good seasons in a row did nothing for UCF.
The other thing these wins have done is give the team confidence in the system Golesh has put in place. Golesh has harped on installing a certain “process” since the day he arrived and these wins seem to validate that. The players can see this team getting better.
Golesh, though, says winning shouldn’t be necessary for the players to buy in to what they’re doing.
“We talk so much about being process driven,” Golesh said. “When you’re process driven and not emotionally attached to an end result that (winning) really doesn’t matter in the sense of how you go about your business.
“I’d be naive to say it doesn’t help to have proof of concept, right, so it does, but when it’s easy after a loss to say man, we’ve got to revert back to our process and clean this up, if you only do that after a loss, but after a win you say man, we’ve arrived, we’re good, that’s a problem,” Golesh commented.
“When you truly believe that how you build a sustainable culture is to be process driven, not outcome driven, you go right back to your daily habits and your daily process regardless of the result.
“So it does matter to have proof of concept, yes, but ultimately it shouldn’t matter in how you prepare,” Golesh said.
“What I told our guys in the locker room after the (Florida) game, I told then again Sunday, again Monday and I told them just now (Tuesday) – and I do have their attention in that regard – if you went into that game and you were focused and clear-minded, physically you felt good, you felt like you were in a really good place physically and mentally, repeat your process. Don’t change, repeat it,” Golesh said.
“But if you felt like man, I wasn’t clear-minded or I was anxious and distracted or physically I didn’t have my legs under me or I wasn’t at an elite level – not pretty good, elite – then we gotta fix your process,” Golesh said.
“And it’s my job, your (position) coaches job, our support staff’s job to help you, but you gotta be all the way bought in,” Golesh emphasized. “You can’t be caught up in the distractions outside of here.
“That’s why we talk about our inner circle so much,” Golesh continued. “Right now the only people telling you the truth are your teammates and coaches. “Everybody else doesn’t matter. They matter in the sense that they’re your family or your buddies or whatever, but their job is to hype you up. Our job is to be real and help you get your process to an elite level,” Golesh insisted.
“And when you go right back to being process driven, whatever happens, the end result ultimately doesn’t matter. It matters in the grand scheme of wins and losses, but individually, in terms of how you prepare, it doesn’t matter,” Golesh emphasized.
What Golesh is trying to instill is the belief that you prepare the same way whether your win or lose, whether you’re playing Florida or Alabama-Birmingham.
Everything’s the same, because the process allows you to be the best that you can be regardless of the opponent and the circumstances. And that gives you the best chance to win. And in the end, winning is what it’s all about.
PAT’S PICKS
USF OVER MIAMI: There’s no logical reason to make this pick. Miami is a better team and playing at home and should win this game comfortably – and probably will. But Florida was a better team and playing at home and should have won comfortably and they didn’t. So USF.
LSU OVER FLORIDA: Billy Napier is fighting for his job but so is Brian Kelly. And the Tigers seem to have it together; the Gators don’t.
FSU OVER EAST TEXAS A&M: There is such a school? Watching an FSU scrimmage would be more exciting.
Last week, 3-1. For the season, 5-4, .556.
