So, how good is Florida State? Well, we know they’re good enough to beat Alabama, which is pretty good. And we know they weren’t good enough to beat Pitt, which is not so good.
And whatever wave they were riding after beating ‘Bama, which was followed by the slaughtering of two lesser foes and had the ‘Noles soaring up the national rankings, is gone now.
In fact, with three losses in a row to Virginia, Miami and Pitt, there are those who are ready to pull the chair out from under Mike Norvell – again.
Norvell and his counterpart at Florida, Billy Napier, have been on pretty much the same trajectory ever since they took over at the state’s two spotlight schools, although Norvell has been on the roller coaster longer.
He looked to have made a place for himself in 2023, when he went 13-0 and won the ACC championship during the regular season. But then, despite being unbeaten, the ‘Noles weren’t picked for the playoffs, lost in the Orange Bowl to Georgia and their momentum stalled.
The end of 2023 carried over to 2024 and the ‘Noles crashed and burned in a big, big way. From 13-1 to 2-10.
So maybe, going into this season, the expectations were too high. FSU had lost most of the 13-1 team but that didn’t matter, people said. They had also lost quarterback Jordan Travis, who threw 20 touchdowns against just two picks, but that didn’t matter either, people said. Turns out it did.
And it left everyone uncertain of what was ahead. Who were these guys? Could Norvell coach ’em up or not? Was he the right guy for the job? All the old questions were back.
Then the Seminoles signed quarterback Tommy Castellanos out of the transfer portal. Brash and outspoken, Castellanos confidently predicted FSU was ready to make its mark again and created instant buzz in Tallahassee. Alabama? They don’t have Nick Saban to save them anymore, Castellanos declared.
Turns out he was right. FSU won, and went from nowhere to No.8 in the AP poll after it’s 3-0 start. Then came Virginia, a 46-38 double overtime loss, and the ‘Noles were 3-1.
And then came mighty Miami, a 28-22 loss after a furious rally which saw FSU score 19 points in the fourth quarter. Now they were 3-2. And then came Pit, and surely, this was where the ‘Noles would get back on track, turn things around. Nope. Final, Pit 34, FSU 31, and now the ‘Noles were 3-3, figured as fakes with hapless Stanford next up Saturday.
“At the end of the day we have three straight weeks finishing with a one possession loss,” Norvell commented according to FSU’s football website. “Ultimately if all falls on my shoulders that we’re not getting it done. We’ve got to see application and execution from all of us, every one of us, of what we want to look like, what we want to be and find a way to get the job done,” Norvell declared.
While many seem to see this three-game losing streak as a disaster, in reality, it is not. This is not Penn State losing to hapless UCLA and struggling Northwestern.
This is a team still trying to find itself after the bitter 2024 season. This is a team which, if it plays to its potential, could still win as many as 10 games.
It has two toughies left in Clemson and Florida, both on the road, and the Gators in particular could be problematic because both Norvell and Napier – if he is still the Florida coach at that point – could need a win to save their jobs.
But FSU, with better execution, might be 6-0 right now instead of 3-3. As Norvell pointed out, change just one possession and you change the outcome.
FSU lost to Virginia 46-38 in double overtime, but if the ‘Noles hadn’t fumbled at their own 38, setting up Virginia’s first touchdown, there might never have been overtime.
FSU lost to Miami, 28-22, but if Castellanos hadn’t been intercepted at the ‘Noles 44, setting up the ‘Canes second touchdown, the outcome might have been very different and the ‘Noles might be ranked in the nation’s top five instead of Miami.
And if FSU hadn’t fumbled at its own 49 in the fourth quarter, setting up Pitt’s tying touchdown in the Panthers’ 34-31 win, Pitt might not have gotten a 34-31 win.
“I believe this team will continue to fight,” Norvell said after the Pitt loss. “I believe you’ll get everything they have and we will get it right.”
And if they do get it right, this could still be a good year for the ‘Noles. And an even better one for Norvell.
PAT’S PICKS
FSU over Stanford: ‘Noles start the long road back.
Florida over Miss State: The Bulldogs’ bubble has burst, and there’s still a lot of fight in Florida.
Miami over Louisville: Can anybody beat Miami? Not Louisville.
USF over FAU: Until somebody proves otherwise (Memphis maybe?) the Bulls are still the best Group of Five team in the country.
UCF over West Virginia: West Virginia isn’t very good, although it somehow beat Pitt. But this is in Orlando and that should give the Knights an edge.
Last week, 3-1. For the season, 22-7, .760.
