Late Saturday, after his two-lap charge to the finish gave him the win in Daytona’s Coke Zero Sugar 400, Ryan Blaney was being compared to Dale Earnhardt as a superspeedway racer.
Now Blaney is a better driver then he is credited with, but comparing him to Earnhardt is like comparing Team Penske to the other two heavyweights in NASCAR, Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports. It can’t be done.
This despite the fact that Penske has won three straight NASCAR championships and could steal a fourth this year; all four of its drivers, Blaney, Joey Logano (who won in 2024), Austin Cindric and the Wood Brothers entry, Josh Berry, have qualified for the playoffs. The Wood Brothers have a technical alliance with Penske and are its defacto fourth car.
You have to say “steal” because NASCAR’s playoffs are not structured to determine a true champion. There are 16 drivers in the playoffs and 12 of them will be eliminated in the next nine events, leaving four to contend for the title in the last race at Phoenix.
Every three races, the four drivers with the lowest point totals get cut. The safest way to make sure you don’t get cut is to win one of the three races in each stage.
According to the Old Guy Sport competition index, there are five drivers who have separated themselves from the rest this year, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, William Byron and Christopher Bell.
And, if there were no playoff and the driver with the most points at the end of the season was declared the winner, one of those five would almost certainly take home the title.
Even using the NASCAR system, which rewards finishing races and not competing in them, Byron (1st), Larson (3rd), Bell (5th), Hamlin (6th) and Briscoe (8th) would be among the top contenders.
But that really doesn’t matter, because you don’t need to accumulate points to make the playoffs, all you have to do is win one race. That’s how Berry and Cindric made it, even though you can make a strong case that neither one belongs.
And that means Cindric, although he has never been competitive at the Cup level, could conceivably be the 2025 NASCAR champion. Admittedly he’s the longest of long shots; To advance he would likely have to win a race in each of the playoff’s three segments and then be the highest finisher among the final four at Phoenix, but the way the rules are he has a chance.
Cindric, though, has only won three races in his entire career, so the odds on him winning three in the last 10 this year are…well, you figure it out. Maybe a billion to one.
But it can be done, because Penske drivers have been doing it over the last couple years. That’s how they get their championships. “I think our focus is to control what we can control and try and get results on the table,” Jonathan Hassler, Penske’s president of NASCAR operations, commented after Blaney’s Daytona win according to NASCAR’s website.
“I certainly don’t feel like we have to come out and set the world on fire,” Hassler continued. “We’ve obviously got some playoff points in the bank, so we’ve kind of got to balance – it’s definitely a time of year where you’ve got to balance trying to be better with just getting base hits and moving on.”
That’s a strategy that seems to work for Penske, proving once again that under the NASCAR system, you don’t have to be the best to be the best.
PLAYOFF PICKS
First four out: Shane van Gisbergen-Only wins on road courses. There are no road courses in the first three playoff races. Josh Berry-The Wood Brothers are not competitive and he drives for the Wood Brothers. First Penske car out. Austin Dillon-Won at Richmond, which was basically the only time he’s been competitive all year. Austin Cindric-Another Penske driver who has never been competitive on any kind of track; well, he’s lucked out on superspeedways once in a while.
Second four out: Tyler Reddick-In a funk all year. Has had some success on road courses but hasn’t performed on ovals. Joey Logano-Once considered Penske’s top driver but at 35, he may have peaked. Still has a little juice on intermediate tracks, but only a little. Ross Chastain-The only place he’s run well is on intermediate tracks, not competitive anywhere else and has fallen off badly this summer. Chase Elliott-Once the leader in the Hendrick garage, has given way to Kyle Larson and William Byron. Has run decently on road courses but doesn’t seem as committed as he once was.
Last four out: Alex Bowman-Has always been the weak link at Hendrick. Hasn’t shown any real improvement this year; continues to struggle on ovals but Hendrick execs like him. Why? Kyle Larson-May be the most talented driver in the sport but he just hasn’t been the same since a miserable performance while running the Indy-Charlotte double. Christopher Bell-Bell made a big splash early and was arguably the most competitive driver in NASCAR through the early part of the season. Then he just disappeared.
And the champion is-Denny Hamlin. Beats out Ryan Blaney, Williams Byron and Chase Briscoe in the last race.
NASCAR NOTES
Most likely winners at Darlington: 1-Denny Hamlin, 2-Kyle Larson, 3-Ryan Blaney. Last year’s winner at Darlington (second race): Chase Briscoe. Top five in second race last year: 1-Briscoe, 2-Kyle Busch, 3-Christopher Bell, 4-Larson, 5-Ross Chastain.
Last week’s Old Guy Sport picks: No picks, race at Daytona. OGS does not count races at superspeedways (Daytona, Atlanta and Talladega) in its standings.
OGS competition index top 10 after 21 races: 1-Hamlin 470, 2-Larson 366, 3-Briscoe 328, 4-William Byron 326, Bell 326, 6-Shane van Gisbergen 295, 7-Blaney 293, 8-Bubba Wallace 160, 9-Alex Bowman 158, 10-Chase Elliott 147.
OGS competition index top 10 on intermediate tracks (tracks most like Darlington) 1-Hamlin 239, 2-Larson 229, 3-Blaney 199, 4-Byron 186, 5-Briscoe 157, 6-Wallace 117, 7-Chastain 102, 8-Logano 79, 9-Bell 71, 10-Bowman 64, Chris Buescher 64.