by Patrick Zier | Aug 4, 2026 |
Toyota is the King Kong of NASCAR. It stands astride the Cup series, clutching Ford in one gigantic hand and Chevy in the other and nobody knows when it will let go. Or if it will let go.
Toyota’s dominance is indisputable. It is crushing the competition everywhere and particularly on the intermediate size tracks, NASCAR’s bread and butter, where it appears unchallengeable.
So, how did we get here? What happened to make one brand that much better then the rest? When the Next Gen car was introduced in 2022, NASCAR put the screws to anybody messing with it. About all the teams could do was put it together. Hands off.
But they quickly noticed that one of the biggest differences between the Next Gen car and its predecessors was that it totally flipped the downforce equation.
In the past, downforce was achieved by stopping air from getting under the car, where it tended to cause lift, and using airflow over and around the body to create grip.
Now, the idea was to let the air get underneath and guide it along the underwing, a smooth metal plate that covered the bottom of the car. A diffuser was used to regulate the air flow and speed it up, which sucked the car down.
The diffuser had metal fins which created channels to move the air out the back of the car, and they were supposed to remain rigid at all times.
But when NASCAR allowed Ford and Chevy to upgrade their cars, they installed carbon-fiber fins that were rigid when the car was stationary but ‘fluttered’ when it was in motion, increasing downforce and causing a swirling mass of air to hit the car behind them.
That destroyed the aerodynamic balance of the trailing car and prevented it from passing.
This year, NASCAR mandated that the fins remain rigid when the car was in motion, and while that’s not the only reason the Chevys and Fords are not competitive; their updated bodies have not worked on the track, it impacted their aerodynamics. And finding the correct front to rear balance has been a real struggle for both brands.
Jeff Andrews, president and general manager of Hendrick Motorsports, Chevy’s premier team, agreed. “It takes months to get everything working together,” Andrews was quoted on racer.com, “because if you take a setup from 2024 or 2025 and roll into Atlanta, Chicago or Charlotte, that won’t work now.
“The downforce is different on top of the car, the percentage from front to rear and side, you have to get all those things to work in cohesion again. It’s almost like building a new notebook,” Andrews added.
Ford is in even rougher shape then Chevy. In fact, the performance of Team Penske, Ford’s leading team, has deteriorated so much in the Next Gen era that it is no longer an elite organization.
On the other hand, when Toyota updated its cars, it did a much better job of improving its aero package than either Ford or Chevy, and it had never installed the carbon-fiber fins in the diffuser, so that was not an issue as it was with the other brands. All that appears to have given Toyota an edge.
The Old Guy Sport competition index shows just how big of an advantage Toyota has, and it appears to be growing each year. While this is not evident in the NASCAR standings for many reasons, it really shows how irrelevant and meaningless the NASCAR standings are when it comes to determining who is truly competitive.
After 18 races in 2025(OGS does not count superspeedway races at Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta) including 10 on intermediate tracks and before NASCAR changed the rules governing the rear diffuser, the OGS competition index showed Joe Gibbs Racing with 1144 points including 498 on intermediate ovals.
Hendrick Motorsports had 867 points with 496 on intermediate tracks, indicating it was competitive with JGR on those ovals. Where it fell off last year was on short tracks. Meanwhile, Penske had just 422 points, with most of those coming on intermediate ovals where it had 367.
But once NASCAR put in the new diffuser rules this year, the Chevy and Ford numbers cratered. Again, this was clearly not the only reason Chevy and Ford fell behind, Toyota simply has a much better Cup racing program now than either Chevy or Ford, but, especially for Ford, which had the same body style it had in 2025, it’s hard to explain the fall off.
As the Cup series heads for Iowa this weekend and after the same number of races, 18, as last year and again with 10 on intermediate ovals, Ford is struggling competitively.
Penske goes into Iowa with just 317 points and only 82 in intermediate tracks, while JGR has a whopping 1,342 including 799 on intermediate ovals. For perspective, Toyota now has more points, by a large margin, than Penske’s entire total for 2025, which was 888. And it’s very close to Hendrick’s 2025 total of 1,412. Hendrick has also fallen off, with 602 overall and 388 on intermediate ovals so far this year.
Kyle Larson, who is the only driver to break through the Toyota onslaught in 2026, praised Hendrick’s efforts. “It’s been a tough year and a lot of hard work to this point,” Larson commented according to racer.com.
“I think there’s still a lot to be learned with this body. I know it doesn’t seem like much on paper, probably, but finding the right balance has been difficult.”
The unspoken word here is that looking ahead, Toyota might run roughshod over the competition until Ford and Chevy get brand new cars, and nobody knows for sure when that will be. That’s not the real nightmare, though, because you have to remember, Toyota will get a new car, too.
NASCAR NOTES
Three most likely winners at Iowa: 1-Ty Gibbs, 2-Denny Hamlin, 3-Kyle Larson. Last year’s winner at Iowa: William Byron. Top five at Iowa last Year: 1- Byron, 2-Chase Briscoe, 3-Brad Keselowski, 4-Ryan Blaney, 5-Ryan Preece.
OGS Indy picks: 1-Hamlin, 2-Christopher Bell, 3-Larson. Indy winner: Corey Heim. OGS season record: 9-9.
OGS competition index top 10 after 18 races: 1-Hamlin 535, 2-Tyler Reddick 343, 3-Bell 313, 4-Larson 270, 5-Briscoe 252, 6-Gibbs 242, 7-Shane van Gisbergen 223, 8-Chase Elliott 181, 9-Blaney 157, 10-Joey Logano 147.
OGS competition index top 10 on short tracks (tracks most like Iowa): 1-Hamlin 116, Gibbs 116, Logano 116, 4-Blaney 112, 5-Larson 83, 6-Bell 61, Elliott 61, 8-Briscoe 41, 9-Reddick 20, 10-van Gisbergen 15.
by Patrick Zier | Jul 30, 2026 |
(This is the last in a three-part series on Florida’s Big Three – Florida, Miami and FSU. Today, FSU)
FSU’s Mike Norvell is in a tough spot. He’s done just enough to keep his job (so far) but not enough to keep Seminole fans satisfied. So he’s going big on the 2026 season because, well, he has to.
Speaking at the recent ACC media days, Norvell had nothing but positives to say about his team. “We understand that with the talent that we have, I’m not going to put any limits on what this football team can accomplish and what we can do,” Norvell said.
And “We understand the expectation. There’s no person or place that has higher expectations than we have being part of this program.”
And “It’s an exciting team, one that understands all that’s in front of us. We have a great opportunity, a great platform.”
Norvell has to hint at the ability of his ‘Noles to win championships – now – because that’s the standard at FSU, or at least it used to be. And he’s had five years now to show people he can do it. Time is running out.
Trouble is, most people aren’t buying what he’s selling. Virtually no one, not even in Tallahassee, expects FSU to compete for anything. It simply isn’t relevant in college football anymore. And that really stings with its fans and the decision makers who run the program.
So Norvell is making one last, determined attempt to end the skepticism. To hear Norvell tell it, This team is ready to rumble. It’s better than you think. It has no major weaknesses.
“When you look at our roster, I think in all phases starting in the trenches with the guys up front, four or our six defensive linemen have returned, guys with great talent and ability. And we’ve been able to bring in a couple of newcomers that I think are going to be very dynamic,” Norvell said.
“We have great leadership at the linebacker position, guys that have been through it. Transfers have come in that are very productive, talented players.
“You look in the defensive backfield, I think we have got some great play-makers at that position, guys with versatile skill sets that will allow us to do a lot of different things,” Norvell continued.
“And then offensively, starting up front, we were able to bring in a good group of transfers who have experience coupled with the guys we have who have continued to grow and develop.
“And then just an outstanding group of skill players at the receiving position led by Duce (Robinson), guys like Micahi Danzy, Jayvan Boggs and some really impressive newcomers who have joined the program,” Norvell declared.
One note here. Norvell isn’t laying it on, at least not when it comes to Robinson. He’s almost univerally considered among the top five receivers in college football and a lot of observers would put him in the top three, so at least that’s one thing Norvell has going for him.
But we digress. To continue: “I really love our running back room, running back and tight end room and their versatility, what we’re going to be able to do,” Norvell said. “And they’re surrounded by a quarterback who can make it happen.”
Ah-h-h-h no.
At quarterback, Norvell brought in Ashton Daniels, formerly of Auburn and, before that, Stanford. While Daniels was a prime prospect coming out of high school, he has done nothing since.
It has even been said that the only reason Norvell took Daniels, who Sports Illustrated recently ranked 60th out of the 68 Power Four conference quarterbacks (including Notre Dame) was because he didn’t have enough money to pursue anyone else.
This could be an indication that FSU donors are getting tired of the ‘Noles inability to win on a consistent basis under Norvell, putting him under even more pressure to make a big splash this year.
With solid quarterback play being critical to success in today’s college game, Daniels’ ability to elevate an offense is extremely suspect. SI pointed out that he is a run-first type, not good when virtually all winning teams depend heavily on throwing the ball.
According to SI, Daniels is just 5-18 as a starter and only three of those wins were against Power Four teams. Additionally, he has the same number of touchdowns, 18, as interceptions. And he only averages six yards per attempt, which would have tied him for 99th among all Power Four quarterbacks last year.
As might be expected, Norvell defends Daniels. “I think Ashton is a guy who can really do it all,” he said. “As we talk about experiences, Ashton has a great deal of college experience throughout his college career.
“He’s been put in a lot of different situations that he’s had to work through. You see somebody that’s just continued to grow,” Norvell remarked.
And so, ready or not, here come the ‘Noles. And they better be ready, or else Norvell’s not going to have a job.
by Patrick Zier | Jul 28, 2026 |
(This is the second of a three-part series on Florida’s Big Three, Florida, Miami and FSU. Today, Miami)
There are no catchy slogans in Miami’s locker room, or the stadium it plays in. There used to be. There was one in the old Orange Bowl, above the exit the players used when they charged through the smoke and onto the field.
It was a play on words, on the old adage that ‘you take what the defense gives you.’ Miami changed that. Above the exit, in big, bold letters, the last thing the players saw was a sign that read ‘We take what we want.’
I liked that. Actually, it was put there by the Miami Dolphins, but it fit the Hurricanes’ bad boy image, the aggressive, sometimes arrogant approach that defined Miami’s attitude at the time. The sign is long gone now, along with the Orange Bowl and, at least until recently, Miami’s winning ways…
Mario Crystobal does not bleed red. He bleeds orange and green. He grew up in Miami, played offensive tackle on two of the U’s (as Miami is reverently referred to by former players and alums) national championship teams and watched from afar as the powerhouse built by Howard Schnellenberger, Jimmy Johnson and others crumbled and fell apart.
So, after Manny Diaz was dismissed in 2021 following three mediocre seasons that were piled on a bunch of other mediocre seasons, Crystobal, then head coach at Oregon, returned to his alma mater.
This would end, now. And he would end it. This was a disgrace. He would put pride back in the program. He would make Miami Miami again. He knew how to get it done. There was no doubt in his mind that Miami could become, once again, what it had been.
Crystobal’s approach to football is entirely different then that of his rival up the road in Gainesville, Jon Sumrall, who was hired this year to do for Florida what Crystobal is doing for Miami.
Unlike Crystobal, Sumrall had no connection with Florida prior to being hired. And again unlike Crystobal, Sumrall has no head coaching experience at a Power Four conference level.
Crystobal, by way of contrast, came to Miami after five highly successful seasons at Oregon, where he won Pac-12 conference championships when the Pac-12 was considered a Power Five conference and compiled an overall 35-14 record.
So, while Sumrall has spent much of his time trying to convince Gator Nation that he is the right guy to pull the program out of the swamp, Crystobal has quietly been marshalling Miami’s resources and making steady progress in getting the ‘Canes back to the top of the mountain in college football.
Last year, Miami made it all the way to the national championship game, where it lost to Indiana, 27-21. But for Crystobal, that isn’t good enough. There’s first place and no place.
“I think in football, we do feel truly at the University of Miami that you never stay the same, you get better or you get worse,” Crystobal commented. “So, elevating every aspect of the program starts with every individual.
“I’m talking about the importance of challenging your coaches and players. We’re blessed to have an excellent coaching staff. But there’s no value in coming back thinking you’re going to be good,” Crystobal said.
“It’s important that we self assess and that we find every possible advantage and edge to give our players so they can go out and be the best they can possibly be,” the Miami coach went on.
“Mentality is everything for us. We like to get on edge and we like to stay on edge. The only way to do that is by demanding certain levels of intensity and urgency as it relates to practice and preparation.
“I think if you speak with our players, I think they’ll echo that,” Crystobal said. “That’s been what has really worked for us. We’re nowhere near where we want to be yet, but we’re certainly gaining ground.
“I owe Miami, I do,” Crystobal declared. “I feel strongly about that as it relates to what we want to accomplish. We don’t have any signs on the wall. For us, it’s as simple as this.
“For us, our culture, this will sum it up. Everybody for everything every single day. There shouldn’t be any misconception or misunderstanding as it relates to that.”
And so, Miami is back, although no one in the program, including Crystobal, will tell you that. And there may not be any signs in bold letters for everyone to see, either. But if you look closely, you can sense it. There’s just an attitude about the ‘Canes again.
They take what they want.
