by Patrick Zier | Aug 28, 2025 |
Boise State has been so good for so long nobody can remember when they were bad – if they ever were. Boise is the Alabama of the Group of Five, the conferences just a notch below the Power Four. If you beat Boise, you have to be really good or really lucky or maybe a little bit of both.
In what will be arguably the most important game South Florida has ever played, the Bulls are going to try and take down Boise in their opener in Tampa Thursday.
This is big. Win this, and you give yourself a chance to go all the way, and by all the way we mean you have a shot at the College Football Playoffs. There’s no guarantee, of course. You still have to beat Memphis. And Navy. And some think Florida Atlantic will be sneaky good. But you have a shot.
Because the highest ranked team from the Group of Five gets an automatic bid to the CFP, and if you beat Boise, you’re in position to be that team. Remember Boise, 11-1 during the regular season last year with only a 37-34 last minute loss to Oregon staining its record, was the Group of Five’s rep in 2024.
So, if you’re USF and you can somehow win this game, you jump start your chances even if you lose to Miami and Florida. But you have to finish, as USF Coach Alex Golesh likes to put it (Boise’s Spencer Danielson says the same thing about his team).
“They had six games going into the fourth quarter that were one score games,” Golesh said. “They know how to finish, and that’s what it takes to win.” Golesh says the Bulls, who have never been in this position before, will be ready. “We’re locked in to the task at hand,” Golesh said according to USF’s football website. “For us it’s a huge challenge, and what we have to do to be successful is play really, really good football.
“We have to play really hard for four quarters and I bring up that fourth quarter stat because this (Boise) is a team that is used to going into the fourth quarter and finishing football games.”
Indeed they are. But one interesting aspect to this game is that Boise State seems to view it as just as critical to its success as USF does, which shows the respect Danielson has for the Bulls.
“Who ever wins this game it’s not gonna be the team who has the most emotion, it’s going to be the team who executes,” Danielson declared according to Boise’s football website.
And both these coaches are big on “process.” Golesh has been all about that since the day he got here and if anything he stresses it more now. “We’re process driven and I’ve hammered that home,” he declared. “Our preparation is the same no matter who you’re playing.”
“We want to have the best process in the country,” Danielson said. “As a coach that’s what we control. To me, I want to make sure we’re preparing our players to be their best. I want to make sure they have everything they need to be successful.”
Besides sticking to the process and finishing in the fourth quarter, there is an X-factor in this game that could decide it, and that’s USF quarterback Byrum Brown. Going into this season, Brown has most definitely been underrated because of the injury plagued season he had in 2024.
But he’s not underrated by Danielson. “Their quarterback, No. 17, Brown, he will be one of the best football players we see all year on either side of the ball,” Danielson declared. “I’m not just talking about one of the best quarterbacks we’ll see, he’s one of the best football players we will see during the 2025 season.
“I have a ton of respect for him,” Danielson continued. “I’ve done a lot of research on him over the summertime, getting to know more about him. Man, I’ve got a lot of respect for the young man, his character, how he leads,” Danielson said.
“He gets a lot of credit for how he runs the ball – which he should. He can make every throw. He’s big and strong. He’s an NFL quarterback. We’ll see him play on Sundays here soon; he’s earned that,” Danielson commented.
“He’s a leader; how he speaks, he grabs your attention in his interviews. We’ve got our hands full with 17,” Danielson remarked.
And USF will have its hands full with Boise, which is why this game will be in the national spotlight. Upstart USF against been there, done that Boise State.
“The big thing for us is that we get to do it (play) on a national stage and that’s awesome for us as we continue to build our brand, our football program,” Golesh said. “It’s the next opportunity to put it on display.”
Indeed it is. Just don’t screw it up.
PAT’S PICKS: Boise over USF-USF has Brown, and he may be up to the task. But Boise has Power Four-type talent. They’re a proven commodity and used to playing – and winning – big games.
Florida over Long Island U-Are you kidding me?
Alabama over FSU-Look out for this one. This is not your father’s Alabama and Kalen DeBoer is definitely not Nick Saban and FSU is definitely better than last year. Maybe a lot better.
Notre Dame over Miami-Miami paid Carson Beck more than $4 million to come play for then. If Beck was that good Georgia would have kept him.
UCF over Jacksonville State-UCF was a disappointment in the Big 12 and Scott Frost was a disappointment at Nebraska (after leaving UCF) and if the Knights lose this one it will be more than a disappointment. It will be a disaster.
by Patrick Zier | Aug 25, 2025 |
Late Saturday, after his two-lap charge to the finish gave him the win in Daytona’s Coke Zero Sugar 400, Ryan Blaney was being compared to Dale Earnhardt as a superspeedway racer.
Now Blaney is a better driver then he is credited with, but comparing him to Earnhardt is like comparing Team Penske to the other two heavyweights in NASCAR, Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports. It can’t be done.
This despite the fact that Penske has won three straight NASCAR championships and could steal a fourth this year; all four of its drivers, Blaney, Joey Logano (who won in 2024), Austin Cindric and the Wood Brothers entry, Josh Berry, have qualified for the playoffs. The Wood Brothers have a technical alliance with Penske and are its defacto fourth car.
You have to say “steal” because NASCAR’s playoffs are not structured to determine a true champion. There are 16 drivers in the playoffs and 12 of them will be eliminated in the next nine events, leaving four to contend for the title in the last race at Phoenix.
Every three races, the four drivers with the lowest point totals get cut. The safest way to make sure you don’t get cut is to win one of the three races in each stage.
According to the Old Guy Sport competition index, there are five drivers who have separated themselves from the rest this year, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, William Byron and Christopher Bell.
And, if there were no playoff and the driver with the most points at the end of the season was declared the winner, one of those five would almost certainly take home the title.
Even using the NASCAR system, which rewards finishing races and not competing in them, Byron (1st), Larson (3rd), Bell (5th), Hamlin (6th) and Briscoe (8th) would be among the top contenders.
But that really doesn’t matter, because you don’t need to accumulate points to make the playoffs, all you have to do is win one race. That’s how Berry and Cindric made it, even though you can make a strong case that neither one belongs.
And that means Cindric, although he has never been competitive at the Cup level, could conceivably be the 2025 NASCAR champion. Admittedly he’s the longest of long shots; To advance he would likely have to win a race in each of the playoff’s three segments and then be the highest finisher among the final four at Phoenix, but the way the rules are he has a chance.
Cindric, though, has only won three races in his entire career, so the odds on him winning three in the last 10 this year are…well, you figure it out. Maybe a billion to one.
But it can be done, because Penske drivers have been doing it over the last couple years. That’s how they get their championships. “I think our focus is to control what we can control and try and get results on the table,” Jonathan Hassler, Penske’s president of NASCAR operations, commented after Blaney’s Daytona win according to NASCAR’s website.
“I certainly don’t feel like we have to come out and set the world on fire,” Hassler continued. “We’ve obviously got some playoff points in the bank, so we’ve kind of got to balance – it’s definitely a time of year where you’ve got to balance trying to be better with just getting base hits and moving on.”
That’s a strategy that seems to work for Penske, proving once again that under the NASCAR system, you don’t have to be the best to be the best.
PLAYOFF PICKS
First four out: Shane van Gisbergen-Only wins on road courses. There are no road courses in the first three playoff races. Josh Berry-The Wood Brothers are not competitive and he drives for the Wood Brothers. First Penske car out. Austin Dillon-Won at Richmond, which was basically the only time he’s been competitive all year. Austin Cindric-Another Penske driver who has never been competitive on any kind of track; well, he’s lucked out on superspeedways once in a while.
Second four out: Tyler Reddick-In a funk all year. Has had some success on road courses but hasn’t performed on ovals. Joey Logano-Once considered Penske’s top driver but at 35, he may have peaked. Still has a little juice on intermediate tracks, but only a little. Ross Chastain-The only place he’s run well is on intermediate tracks, not competitive anywhere else and has fallen off badly this summer. Chase Elliott-Once the leader in the Hendrick garage, has given way to Kyle Larson and William Byron. Has run decently on road courses but doesn’t seem as committed as he once was.
Last four out: Alex Bowman-Has always been the weak link at Hendrick. Hasn’t shown any real improvement this year; continues to struggle on ovals but Hendrick execs like him. Why? Kyle Larson-May be the most talented driver in the sport but he just hasn’t been the same since a miserable performance while running the Indy-Charlotte double. Christopher Bell-Bell made a big splash early and was arguably the most competitive driver in NASCAR through the early part of the season. Then he just disappeared.
And the champion is-Denny Hamlin. Beats out Ryan Blaney, Williams Byron and Chase Briscoe in the last race.
NASCAR NOTES
Most likely winners at Darlington: 1-Denny Hamlin, 2-Kyle Larson, 3-Ryan Blaney. Last year’s winner at Darlington (second race): Chase Briscoe. Top five in second race last year: 1-Briscoe, 2-Kyle Busch, 3-Christopher Bell, 4-Larson, 5-Ross Chastain.
Last week’s Old Guy Sport picks: No picks, race at Daytona. OGS does not count races at superspeedways (Daytona, Atlanta and Talladega) in its standings.
OGS competition index top 10 after 21 races: 1-Hamlin 470, 2-Larson 366, 3-Briscoe 328, 4-William Byron 326, Bell 326, 6-Shane van Gisbergen 295, 7-Blaney 293, 8-Bubba Wallace 160, 9-Alex Bowman 158, 10-Chase Elliott 147.
OGS competition index top 10 on intermediate tracks (tracks most like Darlington) 1-Hamlin 239, 2-Larson 229, 3-Blaney 199, 4-Byron 186, 5-Briscoe 157, 6-Wallace 117, 7-Chastain 102, 8-Logano 79, 9-Bell 71, 10-Bowman 64, Chris Buescher 64.
by Patrick Zier | Aug 22, 2025 |
If you had to use one word to describe Lee Roy Selmon, that word would be “genuine.” No matter the circumstances, no matter how bright the spotlight, Selmon always was who he was. There was no pretense about him.
It is a cliche, but Selmon was larger than life. Although he was exceptional in many ways, it was how he presented himself, how he was able to direct attention away from himself to others, that set him apart.
We were reminded of that again this month when the University of South Florida decided to remember him by giving his number to the defensive lineman who best exemplified his personal and physical attributes.
“This will be a great way to carry on the legacy of Lee Roy Selmon,” USF Coach Alex Golesh commented according to the school’s football website. “It’s really a neat deal for USF. The number 63 will signify someone who has worked and shown a level of integrity, athletic ability and academic excellence, all the traits I’ve heard about since I’ve got here that defined Lee Roy Selmon,” Golesh said.
Selmon, of course, had a major impact on South Florida football. He was hired by then athletic director Paul Griffin in 1993 primarily to get the program started and helped guide it through its formative years.
Selmon worked with Jim Leavitt, USF’s first – and most successful – coach, and because he was extremely influential in the Tampa Bay community, he became the driving force behind the effort to get the first football facilities built.
When Leavitt took the job, South Florida had nothing. No offices. No locker room. Not even a practice field. Leavitt, in fact, found a goal post under the soccer stadium grandstand and had it set up so the team could work out.
Leavitt’s office was a cramped trailer that had two partitions, one for him and one for his receptionist. This was a program that literally had to be built from the ground up, and without Selmon, it would have been much more difficult. In many ways, Selmon was the glue that held things together.
In 2001 though, things started to unravel. First, Griffin was fired after covering up a complaint of racial bias made against USF’s women’s basketball coach.
That led to Selmon being elevated to athletic director, a move that gave South Florida football immediate credibility. Selmon was tremendously respected in both the collegiate and pro football community, and we can only speculate on how that would have impacted USF had he continued on in the job.
For one thing, Selmon’s approach was almost the direct opposite of Griffin’s.
Griffin was a dynamo, pushing the athletic department to expand at a rapid pace. Perhaps because of his experience at the highest level of collegiate football; Selmon played at Oklahoma and was on two national championship teams there, he understood what was needed to compete. And he saw first hand how difficult it was to build something from nothing when he was with the Bucs.
So, Selmon was more conservative than Griffin. He wanted the program to move forward; on Selmon’s watch, USF jumped first to Conference USA and then to the Big East, but he wanted to make sure USF was ready to make the move when it happened.
And then there was the dismissal of Leavitt. Selmon wasn’t directly involved in this, he retired at the end of 2004 for undisclosed health reasons, but there is no question that had he still been in charge it might never have happened.
Selmon was succeeded as AD by Doug Woolard, who had nominal control of the football program. However, after taking the team to three straight bowls in 2005, 2006 and 2007 plus starting out 6-0 with wins over nationally ranked Auburn and West Virginia and being voted No. 2 in the polls that same year, Leavitt had the bit in his teeth.
This was his program and he would run it his way. He was in charge. That changed in 2009, when Leavitt grabbed a USF player by the throat and slapped him at halftime during a game with Louisville. The school investigated, Leavitt tried to interfere with the investigation and he was fired. That sent USF into a mire of mediocrity from which it hasn’t yet recovered.
Had Selmon still been at USF, none of this might have happened. Woolard couldn’t control Leavitt; Selmon could. Like everyone else, Leavitt deferred to Selmon. Selmon’s quiet demeanor gave him an aura of authority that commanded respect. Leavitt would have coached the team but Selmon would have been in charge of the program.
Where ever he has been, Selmon made his mark in his own, unique way. What ever he did, whether it was playing football, working in the community or advocating for a cause, nobody did it better. And as USF – and others – have found out, you can get some one to take his place, but you can’t replace him.
by Patrick Zier | Aug 20, 2025 |
It wasn’t always like this. Richard Childress Racing wasn’t always scrambling to win a race here and there, wasn’t always living more on its reputation than its performance.
Back then, Dale Earnhardt made a difference. He was larger than life during his time at RCR with his 67 wins, six championships and get-the-hell-out-of-my-way driving style. If Earnhardt’s iconic black No. 3 wasn’t feared when it took to the track, it was darn well respected.
But those days are long gone, and so is Earnhardt and so is the competitiveness that separated RCR from the pack. Now, it’s part of the pack, struggling to break out, to regain its identity. For the most part, it hasn’t been successful, and despite Austin Dillon’s win at Richmond last week, the road ahead doesn’t look any easier.
It’s a team trapped in the past, haunted by Earnhardt’s ghost. The gap between RCR and NASCAR’s big three, Joe Gibbs Racing, Hendrick and Penske, is not narrowing and looks to be getting wider. Childress keeps shuffling the pieces but they are basically the same pieces that didn’t work before and rearranging them isn’t going to make them work now.
There is a saying in NASCAR to the effect that if you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse. That simply means that if you’re content to keep on doing the things that are working for you now, you’re not improving and others will pass you.
That seems to be what’s happened at RCR. Kevin Harvick, who took over as RCR’s lead driver following the death of Earnhardt, won 23 races in 13 years there. Harvick kept the team from collapsing, but it fell behind the big three.
When Harvick left RCR to join Stewart-Haas in 2014. his career took off. At the time, led by Stewart and his crew chief, Greg Zipadelli, S-H ranked with Gibbs, Hendrick and Penske as one of NASCAR’s Power 4.
Unlike RCR, it was innovative and aggressive and with S-H backing, Harvick became one of the top competitors in the sport, something that never would have happened had he stayed at RCR. Over his 10 years with S-H, he won 37 races and a championship.
RCR, meanwhile, became mired in mediocrity, stuck in the past. It became very much an ingrown operation, with Childress bringing in his grandson, Dillon, as the lead driver because the couldn’t get anybody else. Although he had been successful at lower levels, hiring Dillon further tarnished RCR’s image.
“Austin has earned his way from the time we put him in a Bandolero car,” Childress said as reported on NASCAR’s media site after the Richmond race. “I said you guys (Austin and his brother Ty Dillon) have to earn your way.
“He (Austin) went out and won a truck championship. He went out and won an xfinity championship. He’s won races in everything he’s ever driven,” Childress declared.
And to be fair, Dillon has won six races at RCR. While that doesn’t compare with NASCAR’s big boys, it’s a solid number for a tier two team, and RCR is now a tier two team.
At that level only Kyle Busch with 63 wins, Brad Keselowski with 36 and Tyler Reddick with eight have more among current drivers, and 60 of Busch’s wins came when he was with two of the top teams in the sport, four with Hendrick and 56 with Gibbs.
Keselowski has a similar record, with 34 of his 36 coming when he was with Penske.
Only Reddick, who drove briefly for Childress before jumping to the up-and-coming 23XI team, has all his wins at a tier two level. So, if you subtract Busch and Keselowski’s wins with elite teams, Reddick has the most in tier two with eight and Dillon is next with six. Busch would have three and Keselowski 2.
This, though, only masks how bad things have gotten at RCR. Even with Busch as its lead driver; he came on board in 2023 after he couldn’t work out a new contract with Gibbs, RCR has yet to get a handle on NASCAR’s Next Gen car, which debuted in 2022.
Busch won three races for RCR in 2023 but is currently on an 82 race winless streak. He’s 40, and his best years are behind him, but put him in a winning car and he can still win; RCR just doesn’t build winning cars.
The Old Guy Sport competition index, which measures competitiveness on the track as opposed to the NASCAR point system which is based on simply finishing races, shows how far RCR has fallen.
Disregarding superspeedway races (Atlanta, Daytona and Talladega), which tell you nothing about the driver or the team because avoiding the big wreck and being in the right lane at the right time determine the winner, Dillon currently has 64 points in the OGS competition index, and 63 came in the Richmond race.
Busch has only 38 points and has been competitive in only two races, both road courses. Truth be told, Busch would probably love to go to a better team to finish his career, but there’s nothing else available.
“We talk about it (getting better), get the key people together, talk about what we need to do to make our company better, make the cars better,” Childress said.
“These guys have stepped up to the plate; everybody, John, I call him John K Klausmeier (RCR’s technical director)- I think that’s his last name, he’s doing the job for us. Chevy has a tech center, we’re working there. Effort is being put in for sure to change it and turn things around,” Childress declared.
Still, when the team owner isn’t sure of the technical director’s last name., you’ve got a problem. When you talk about changes but don’t really change anything, you’ve got a problem. When you’re putting in effort but you don’t know what you should be working on, you’ve got a problem.
RCR’s people may be stepping up to the plate, but they’re striking out. And RCR is not going to get better unless it brings in better people who have a better idea of what you need to do to win today. Because what worked for Dale Earnhardt won’t work now.
NASCAR NOTES
No race this week. Old Guy Sport does not count superspeedway races (Atlanta, Daytona, Talledega) because winning at those tracks is almost entirely dependent on luck and has little to do with how the driver or the team performs.
Last week’s OGS Richmond picks: 1-Chase Briscoe, 2-Denny Hamlin, 3-Kyle Larson. Richmond winner: Austin Dillon. OGS season record: 10-10.
OGS competition index top 10 after 21 races: 1-Hamlin 470 points, 2-Larson 366, 3-Briscoe 328, 4-William Byron 326, Christopher Bell 326, 6-Shane van Gisbergen 295, 7-Ryan Blaney 293, 8-Bubba Wallace 160, 9-Alex Bowman 158, 10-
Chase Elliott 147.
by Patrick Zier | Aug 12, 2025 |
It was a mistake, and Shane van Gisbergen doesn’t make mistakes, at least not on road courses. And here he was, leading the race on the last lap at Watkins Glen, hounded by Chris Buescher with only a few corners to go. No matter. He had this.
And then he didn’t. Going into one of the final turns, SVG got a bit high, allowing Buescher to close on him. Buescher tapped SVG’s bumper, causing him to wobble, then got inside him to take the lead.
SVG would close on Buescher one last time, but as he tried to go outside, Buescher came down to block, SVG fishtailed slightly, and Buescher took the checkered flag.
That was then, 2024 to be exact, and this is now. Then, SVG was running 12 races in a car prepared by Kaulig Racing, a nondescript NASCAR team which has never been competitive.
Now, he has a fulltime ride with Trackhouse Racing, a well organized tier two team just a notch below the top Toyota, Chevy and Ford organizations.
Trackhouse is led by Ross Chastain, who has won at least one race every year since NASCAR’s Next Gen car came on line in 2022, and the pairing of road course king SVG and Chastain, who has been very competitive on the ovals, has given the group some extra juice.
The team also has a third driver, Daniel Suarez, but he has been a disappointment and is being let go at the end of this season.
SVG’s rise to the top in NASCAR has been meteoric and totally unexpected. From New Zealand, the 36-year-old is a veteran of the Australian Supercar series which runs strictly on road courses.
But he was a complete unknown when he ran the Chicago street race in 2023, his first time in a stock car, and won. And he hasn’t looked back.
Last Sunday, he avenged his 2024 loss at Watkins Glen by winning there, his fourth straight road course win of the year. Although he is only 25th in points, that makes him second in the NASCAR playoff standings (SVG is sixth in the Old Guy Sport competition index) and the four wins are the most ever in NASCAR for a rookie driver.
Justin Marks, who owns Trackhouse and brought SVG to Chicago for his first race, is not surprised by his road course success. “What he’s doing right now is sort of why he’s in the car,” Marks commented on NASCAR’s media site after SVG’s win at the Glen. “We feel like he had an opportunity to do this.
“But when these wins just keep coming in the way that they are and the fact that the rest of the series, the rest of the drivers, are watching him and getting better but he’s getting better too, and it seems like they can’t do anything with him right now, is just an amazing thing to watch,” Marks said.
While it’s easy to concentrate on SVG’s success, all of it has come on road courses. It’s been entirely different for him on ovals, where his best finish so far is a 14th at Charlotte. He is simply not competitive on the tracks that host the majority of NASCAR races.
And while he intimidates the competition on road courses; mentally, the other drivers almost concede the victory to him and admit they are racing to be best in class, his performance on ovals must improve markedly before he can be considered among NASCAR’s elite.
“I’m very encouraged by his rate of learning on the ovals,” Marks remarked. “I think he has only just begun to put it together. I think the ceiling is really high for him, and he’s here for a while.”
That may be, but it hasn’t really shown up yet. SVG has consistently run around 20th on ovals this year. Still, he’s made the playoffs, he’s proven he can win and he seems to be getting more comfortable in his car.
Plus, Trackhouse has put everything it’s got behind him. “If you can catch lightning in a bottle like we have with SVG, you’ve got to really lean into it,” Marks declared. Hard.
NASCAR NOTES
Three most likely winners at Richmond: 1-Chase Briscoe, 2-Denny Hamlin, 3-Kyle Larson. Last year’s winners at Richmond: First race-Hamlin. Second race-Austin Dillon. Top five in first race: 1-Hamlin, 2-Joey Logano, 3-Larson, 4-Martin Truex, 5-Chase Elliott. Second race: 1-Dillon, 2-Hamlin, 3-Tyler Reddick, 4-Bubba Wallace, 5-Ross Chastain.
Last week’s Old Guy Sport competition index picks at Watkins Glen: 1-Shane van Gisbergen, 2-Elliott, 3-Reddick. Watkins Glen winner: Shane van Gisbergen. OGS season record: 10-9.
OGS competition index after 20 races: 1-Hamlin 470 points, 2-Larson 365, 3-Briscoe 328, 4-William Byron 326, Christopher Bell 326, 6-van Gisbergen 295, 7-Ryan Blaney 258, 8-Wallace 149, 9-Elliott 147, 10-Ty Gibbs 122.
OGS competition index on short tracks (tracks similar to Richmond): 1-Hamlin 211, 2-Larson 135, 3-Briscoe 112, 4-Bell 110, 5-Byron 80, 6-Elliott 50, 7-Blaney 37, Brad Keselowski 37, 9-Gibbs 40, 10-Alex Bowman 34.
