Toyota is the King Kong of NASCAR. It stands astride the Cup series, clutching Ford in one gigantic hand and Chevy in the other and nobody knows when it will let go. Or if it will let go.
Toyota’s dominance is indisputable. It is crushing the competition everywhere and particularly on the intermediate size tracks, NASCAR’s bread and butter, where it appears unchallengeable.
So, how did we get here? What happened to make one brand that much better then the rest? When the Next Gen car was introduced in 2022, NASCAR put the screws to anybody messing with it. About all the teams could do was put it together. Hands off.
But they quickly noticed that one of the biggest differences between the Next Gen car and its predecessors was that it totally flipped the downforce equation.
In the past, downforce was achieved by stopping air from getting under the car, where it tended to cause lift, and using airflow over and around the body to create grip.
Now, the idea was to let the air get underneath and guide it along the underwing, a smooth metal plate that covered the bottom of the car. A diffuser was used to regulate the air flow and speed it up, which sucked the car down.
The diffuser had metal fins which created channels to move the air out the back of the car, and they were supposed to remain rigid at all times.
But when NASCAR allowed Ford and Chevy to upgrade their cars, they installed carbon-fiber fins that were rigid when the car was stationary but ‘fluttered’ when it was in motion, increasing downforce and causing a swirling mass of air to hit the car behind them.
That destroyed the aerodynamic balance of the trailing car and prevented it from passing.
This year, NASCAR mandated that the fins remain rigid when the car was in motion, and while that’s not the only reason the Chevys and Fords are not competitive; their updated bodies have not worked on the track, it impacted their aerodynamics. And finding the correct front to rear balance has been a real struggle for both brands.
Jeff Andrews, president and general manager of Hendrick Motorsports, Chevy’s premier team, agreed. “It takes months to get everything working together,” Andrews was quoted on racer.com, “because if you take a setup from 2024 or 2025 and roll into Atlanta, Chicago or Charlotte, that won’t work now.
“The downforce is different on top of the car, the percentage from front to rear and side, you have to get all those things to work in cohesion again. It’s almost like building a new notebook,” Andrews added.
Ford is in even rougher shape then Chevy. In fact, the performance of Team Penske, Ford’s leading team, has deteriorated so much in the Next Gen era that it is no longer an elite organization.
On the other hand, when Toyota updated its cars, it did a much better job of improving its aero package than either Ford or Chevy, and it had never installed the carbon-fiber fins in the diffuser, so that was not an issue as it was with the other brands. All that appears to have given Toyota an edge.
The Old Guy Sport competition index shows just how big of an advantage Toyota has, and it appears to be growing each year. While this is not evident in the NASCAR standings for many reasons, it really shows how irrelevant and meaningless the NASCAR standings are when it comes to determining who is truly competitive.
After 18 races in 2025(OGS does not count superspeedway races at Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta) including 10 on intermediate tracks and before NASCAR changed the rules governing the rear diffuser, the OGS competition index showed Joe Gibbs Racing with 1144 points including 498 on intermediate ovals.
Hendrick Motorsports had 867 points with 496 on intermediate tracks, indicating it was competitive with JGR on those ovals. Where it fell off last year was on short tracks. Meanwhile, Penske had just 422 points, with most of those coming on intermediate ovals where it had 367.
But once NASCAR put in the new diffuser rules this year, the Chevy and Ford numbers cratered. Again, this was clearly not the only reason Chevy and Ford fell behind, Toyota simply has a much better Cup racing program now than either Chevy or Ford, but, especially for Ford, which had the same body style it had in 2025, it’s hard to explain the fall off.
As the Cup series heads for Iowa this weekend and after the same number of races, 18, as last year and again with 10 on intermediate ovals, Ford is struggling competitively.
Penske goes into Iowa with just 317 points and only 82 in intermediate tracks, while JGR has a whopping 1,342 including 799 on intermediate ovals. For perspective, Toyota now has more points, by a large margin, than Penske’s entire total for 2025, which was 888. And it’s very close to Hendrick’s 2025 total of 1,412. Hendrick has also fallen off, with 602 overall and 388 on intermediate ovals so far this year.
Kyle Larson, who is the only driver to break through the Toyota onslaught in 2026, praised Hendrick’s efforts. “It’s been a tough year and a lot of hard work to this point,” Larson commented according to racer.com.
“I think there’s still a lot to be learned with this body. I know it doesn’t seem like much on paper, probably, but finding the right balance has been difficult.”
The unspoken word here is that looking ahead, Toyota might run roughshod over the competition until Ford and Chevy get brand new cars, and nobody knows for sure when that will be. That’s not the real nightmare, though, because you have to remember, Toyota will get a new car, too.
NASCAR NOTES
Three most likely winners at Iowa: 1-Ty Gibbs, 2-Denny Hamlin, 3-Kyle Larson. Last year’s winner at Iowa: William Byron. Top five at Iowa last Year: 1- Byron, 2-Chase Briscoe, 3-Brad Keselowski, 4-Ryan Blaney, 5-Ryan Preece.
OGS Indy picks: 1-Hamlin, 2-Christopher Bell, 3-Larson. Indy winner: Corey Heim. OGS season record: 9-9.
OGS competition index top 10 after 18 races: 1-Hamlin 535, 2-Tyler Reddick 343, 3-Bell 313, 4-Larson 270, 5-Briscoe 252, 6-Gibbs 242, 7-Shane van Gisbergen 223, 8-Chase Elliott 181, 9-Blaney 157, 10-Joey Logano 147.
OGS competition index top 10 on short tracks (tracks most like Iowa): 1-Hamlin 116, Gibbs 116, Logano 116, 4-Blaney 112, 5-Larson 83, 6-Bell 61, Elliott 61, 8-Briscoe 41, 9-Reddick 20, 10-van Gisbergen 15.
