Toyota has become the Godzilla of stock car racing. Nobody can stop it. Not Ford. Not Chevy. Not even NASCAR. Toyota is crushing the competition and there’s no end in sight.
Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) and 23IX, Toyota’s top two teams, have taken over the sport. It didn’t happen overnight. It’s been brewing almost since NASCAR unveiled the new Next Gen car in 2022, something that’s been building for a while and came to fruition this year.
Ever since the Next Gen car came on line, NASCAR’s big three, JGR, Hendrick Motorsports (Chevy) and Penske Racing (Ford) have been in a race to see who could figure it out first.
All have made small gains, but the Toyota teams have discovered something which has given them a decided edge this season. They are not only running away from the pack, they have left it choking on the dirty air that swirls out of their tailpipes.
Toyota’s dominance is apparent when you look at the numbers it is putting up in the Old Guy Sport competition index. The OGS competition index is a better measure of competitive balance than the NASCAR point system because it rewards racing and leading laps under green rather than simply finishing the race.
It also eliminates the three superspeedways, Daytona, Atlanta and Talladega, which don’t give you a true picture of who’s running well and who’s not because luck is the primary factor in determining how you finish.
And when you look at the OGS competition index, Toyota is in a class by itself. The top three drivers are Denny Hamlin, 330 points; Tyler Reddick, 281 and Christopher Bell, 217, all in Toyotas.
That’s the first time a single manufacturer has had the top three in the Next Gen era. What’s more, Hamlin, Reddick and Bell are running away from the pack. Hendrick’s Kyle Larson, with just 169 points, is fourth.
And five of the six factory Toyota drivers are in the top 10. Ty Gibbs is sixth and Chase Briscoe ninth. Only Bubba Wallace, who seems to be kind of leveling out, is missing. Wallace has just 10 points and is tied for 19th.
Toyota is dominating in other ways as well. It has 31, or more than half, of the top five finishes through the first 11 races. Chevy has 18 and Ford six. By themselves, Hamlin, Reddick and Bell have 19.
Toyota has gotten 227 points on the OGS competition index for leading laps under green. Chevy has 111 and Ford 71. By themselves, Hamlin, Reddick and Bell have accumulated 204 points.
“They have something figured out,” Larson, the defending NASCAR Cup champion, admitted on NASCAR’s website. “The Toyota’s are really, really fast. They have good grip. They’re able to be on offense all the time.”
Clearly, Toyota has done a much better job of adapting to the Next Gen car than anybody else. Generally speaking, Hendrick has been considered the best organization in NASCAR. That was always debatable, but JGR has now surpassed it. JGR stands alone.
In 2023, the second year of the Next Gen car, Hendrick’s four drivers totaled 2.310 points in the OGS competition index. In 2024, that dropped to 1,616 and in 2025, 1,412.
In 2023, JGR’s foursome was at 1,356 points. That rose to 1,518 in 2024 and 1,797 last year. Through the first 11 races of this year, JGR has nearly doubled Hendrick, outscoring the leading Chevy team 811-411.
In the Next Gen era Penske Motorsports, Ford’s top entry, has never been remotely competitive despite the fact it won NASCAR championships in 2022, 2023 and 2024. This is just one indication of how far off the mark the NASCAR point system is.
Penske’s four drivers had just 442 points in 2023, 816 in 2024 and 888 last season. While that indicates marginal improvement each year, the Next Gen car continues to be a mystery to Penske and Ford. This year, Ford has scored only 201 points in the first 11 events.
This despite the fact that Ryan Blaney has proven to be one of the most talented drivers in the sport and, by far, the leading competitor on the Penske team. Even though he is dragging the Ford anchor behind him, Blaney is currently seventh in the OGS competition index with 149 points.
So why have the top teams had so much trouble with the Next Gen car? Because it is radically different than anything that came before. Prior to 2022, when the Next Gen car was introduced, downforce was primarily generated by air going over and around the car and trapped by the rear spoiler, forcing the back of the car down.
The underside of the car was open, exposing all the mechanical components and pipes that were the guts of the power train. Because of that, air going under the car couldn’t be controlled and moved into any opening it could find, pushing the car up and reducing downforce.
But the Next Gen car has an underwing that covers the bottom on the car from behind the front wheels to just in front of the rear wheels, creating a smooth surface for the air to pass through.
So now, instead of keeping the front of he car down to keep air from getting under it, you want it up a bit to let a steady stream of air in. As the air is channeled back and out of the car, a low pressure area develops below it which creates downforce.
And whichever manufacturer does that the best has an advantage. “It’s (Toyota’s advantage over the others) not as much as you think,” Hendrick’s Chase Elliott, who has won twice so far, declared on NASCAR’s website.
“That’s the challenge for us right now. You’re just fighting for such small margins (of improvement),” he added.bbs
That’s true. But right now, Ford and Chevy are losing that fight. And it doesn’t look like it will get better anytime soon.
NASCAR NOTES
Three most likely winners at Michigan this week: 1-Christopher Bell, 2-Denny Hamlin, 3-Tyler Reddick. Last year’s winner at Michigan: Hamlin. Top five at Michigan last year: 1-Hamlin, 2-Chris Buescher, 3-Ty Gibbs, 4-Bubba Wallace, 5-Kyle Larson.
Last week’s Old Guy Sport Nashville picks: 1-Hamlin, 2-Reddick, 3-Bell. Last week’s Nashville winner: Hamlin. OGS record through 11 races, 6-5.
OGS competition index top 10: 1-Hamlin 330 points, 2-Reddick 281, 3-Bell 217, 4-Larson 169, 5-Chase Elliott 166, 6-Gibbs 163, 7-Ryan Blaney 149, 8-Shane van Gisbergen 128, 9-Chase Briscoe 101, 10-Brad Keselowski 63.
OGS competition index top 10 on intermediate tracks (tracks most similar to Michigan): 1-Hamlin 254, 2-Reddick 176, 3-Bell 126, 4-Elliott 105, 5-Larson 86, 6-Briscoe 67, 7-Keselowski 63, 8-Daniel Suarez 51, 9-Blaney 37, 10-William Byron 34.
