After Hendrick’s Chase Elliott won his second race of the season (his best start ever, by the way) at Texas last week, Jeff Gordon, now vice chairman of Hendrick Motorsports, was asked how many Cup cars he thought could win races on a regular basis.
He really didn’t know, he could only guess, but it was probably around 12, Gordon replied according to the NASCAR media website. That makes sense. It covers all the entries on NASCAR’s three elite teams – Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing and Penske Racing.
Others have tried to get to their level, but they have all crashed and burned with one exception – Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin’s 23XI.
For a while, many thought Trackhouse would pull it off. But the team’s promising start has hit a brick wall, with its only real strength Shane van Gisbergen’s prowess on road courses.
After Brad Keselowski left Penske to inject new life into RFK (Roush-Fenway-Keselowski), it was thought they might make it but that hasn’t worked out, either, with the team stuck in neutral at best.
And then there’s Richard Childress Racing, which once had elite status when Dale Earnhardt was its primary driver but which has become mediocre, many would say less then that, in recent years despite the presence of a top talent in Kyle Busch.
That leaves 23XI as the only possible challenger, and led by Tyler Reddick, it is moving up. It needs more depth, but it has the necessary ingredients to make the big three the big four if it can keep improving.
“It’s really hard to put a number on it,” Gordon said in terms of trying to determine the number of cars with a chance to consistently run up front. “There’s a lot of strong teams that are very competitive, and this series is competitive. These cars are very close.
“I still think the best teams rise to the top. And so if you asked me about that, I would say the number gets lower because of full-team execution. It starts to separate you, from pit stops to the fine details.”
In fact, it turns out Gordon was right about that last point. Most teams simply don’t have the quality engine builders, technicians, shock specialists, etc. to compete week in and week out with the very best.
If you use the Old Guy Sport competition index as a gauge, and it’s a better indicator than the NASCAR point standings because it measures how teams and drivers perform, not how they finish, which is the main criteria for NASCAR, then there are just five drivers, not 12, who stand out.
They are Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell and Reddick. Since 2024, they have won 37 of the 68 races, 54 percent, used to compile the OGS competition index. OGS does not count the superspeedway races (Daytona, Atlanta and Talladega ) because luck, not driver or team performance, determines the outcome in those events.
And not only do they win the majority of races, they consistently lead in OGS points. In 2024 they took five of the first six spots with Larson winning the championship, Bell second and Hamlin third. Only William Byron broke into the top six from outside the group.
In 2025 they won four of the top five positions with Hamlin first, Larson second and Blaney third. Chase Briscoe was the lone outsider. Reddick was an anomaly, finishing 12th after facing a myriad of problems.
Currently, after eight races, Hamlin is the leader with Reddick second, Larson fourth, Bell fifth and Blaney sixth. Elliott holds down the third spot.
And it doesn’t seem likely that anything will change between now and the end of the season. Once again, the ‘Fab Five’ is firmly in control.
NASCAR NOTES
Three most likely winners at Watkins Glen: 1-Shane van Gisbergen, 2-Christopher Bell, 3-Tyler Reddick. Last year’s winner at Watkins Glen: van Gisbergen. Last year’s top 5 at Watkins Glen: 1-van Gisbergen, 2-Bell, 3-Chris Buescher, 4-William Byron, 5-Chase Briscoe.
Last week’s OGS Texas picks: 1-Ryan Blaney, 2-Denny Hamlin, 3-Kyle Larson. Texas winner: Chase Elliott. OGS season record after eight races: 4-4.
OGS competition index top 10: 1-Hamlin 236 points, 2-Reddick 230, 3-Elliott 166, 4-Kyle Larson 150, 5-Blaney 144, 6-Bell 128, 7-Ty Gibbs 123, 8-Brad Keselowski 63, 9-Byron 46, Briscoe 46.
OGS competition index top 10 on road courses (tracks most similar to Watkins Glen) 1-Reddick 75 points, 2-van Gisbergen 41, 3-Bell 30, 4-Gibbs 22, 5-Michael McDowell 15, 6-Briscoe 4, 7-Ross Chastain 2, 8-Byron 1.
