It was just after the race at Kansas, and Chad Knaus, Hendrick Motorsports vice president of competition, was talking about Kyle Larson. Heck, everybody was talking about Kyle Larson.
Larson had just finished crushing the competition, winning the race and leading 221 of the 267 laps. He is the dominant driver in NASCAR and Knaus, who is best known as the crew chief who guided Jimmie Johnson to seven NASCAR championships including five in a row, implied that led by Larson, Hendrick is now the sport’s dominant team.
“I think if you take a look at it, we’re maturing as a group,” Knaus said at a post-race press conference as reported on NASCAR’s website. “Obviously, the crew chiefs (Hendrick has four cars) are now in their third complete year of working together and our drivers are maturing and working together.
“The communication at Hendrick Motorsports has always been high, but I don’t think it’s ever been as high as it is now,” Knaus continued. “It’s something great to be part of.
“We’ve got Tom Gray, who is our technical director and he’s doing a really good job in his role and obviously, our leadership is just awesome with Mr. H (Rick Hendrick) and Jeff Gordon and Jeff Andrews,” Knaus said.
It’s easy to push Hendrick to the front. It’s been an elite team for years and few would argue that it isn’t the best team now. But is it?
The NASCAR point system, which is used to determine the sport’s champion, says it is. All four Hendrick drivers, Larson (1st), William Byron (2nd), Chase Elliott (4th) and Alex Bowman (8th) are in the top 10.
But the NASCAR point system has never been about determining who’s the best, it’s all about keeping as many drivers in the championship chase for as long as possible.
Points are awarded based on where you finish, not how you compete. Although there are some add-ons, you get 40 points for a win, 35 for second and one point less for each position after that. So, if you rack up a bunch of top 10s, which the Hendrick cars have done, you’re going to be in good shape.
Combined, the four Hendrick cars have 29 top 10s in the first 12 races. Joe Gibbs Racing’s four cars have 21, and Penske’s four (including the Wood brothers entry, which has a close alignment with Penske) have 15.
None of this, though, really tells you much about who is competitive and who isn’t. In NASCAR, you can finish 10th, never lead a lap and collect 27 points and someone else can lead 100 laps, get wrecked, finish 35th and get only two.
The Old Guy Sport competition index uses a totally different system to determine who’s competitive and who’s not. It produces very different results than NASCAR because it relies mainly on top five finishes and leading laps under green.
Take Elliott for example. While he’s fourth in NASCAR’s standings with 378 points, 91 behind leader Larson’s 469, he has only 50 points in the OGS competition index, putting him 237 behind Larson, who also leads OGS with 287.
The OGS competition index also shows Larson is not as dominant as it may seem and Hendrick is not in a class by itself as a team. Again, using the OGS model instead of NASCAR, until he won Kansas, Larson was second in the OGS competition index behind Denny Hamlin. And Byron and Christopher Bell are competitive with him as well.
This is not to say Larson isn’t the best driver in the sport, he probably is, but racing is a fickle mistress and there are things out of your control which affect the outcome.
For example, Larson has never won a championship in the Next Gen car, which came on line in 2022. In part, this is because NASCAR’s playoff system, patterned after those in team sports, doesn’t work in racing because it is unforgiving.
A quarterback can throw two interceptions in the first quarter of the Super Bowl to put his team behind, then come back in the fourth with a touchdown pass to win the game.
Not in racing. You can have the best car in the race but if somebody knocks you into the wall, you’re done.
The OGS competition index does not use a playoff system and counts all its races equally, and using that format, Larson has been the champion the last two years in a row. The NASCAR champion last year was Joey Logano, who ranked 15th in points going into the playoff.
And while Knaus and others praise Hendrick’s team effort, it is really Larson who is keeping them on top this year. Hendrick’s success is not a team effort. It is a Larson effort, although you would never know it using NASCAR’s system.
Using NASCAR, the four Hendrick drivers, Larson, Byron, Elliott and Bowman, have scored 1,606 points, of which Larson has 469. Joe Gibbs Racing, with Hamlin, Bell, Chase Briscoe and Ty Gibbs, has 1,325 led by Bell’s 384.
But the OGS competition index presents a very different picture. To begin with, JGR is actually very competitive with Hendrick, totaling 535 points to Hendrick’s 538. And of Hendrick’s 538, Larson has a whopping 287. Bell leads Gibbs with 227 and Hamlin has 218.
So, Hendrick really isn’t some 500-pound gorilla smashing everything in sight. Gibbs, particularly with Hamlin and Bell, will hit you pretty hard, too. Larson may get the headlines, but he doesn’t always get the win. And neither does Hendrick.
NASCAR NOTES: All-Star race this week. Does not count in OGS competition index standings.
Last week’s OGS Kansas picks: 1-Kyle Larson, 2-William Byron, 3-Ryan Blaney. Kansas winner: Larson. OGS season record: 5-4.
OGS competition index top 10: 1-Larson 287 points, 2-Christopher Bell 227, 3-Denny Hamlin 218, 4-Byron 139, 5-Blaney 107, 6-Josh Berry 83, 7-Bubba Wallace 73, 8-Joey Logano 70, 9-Tyler Reddick 67, 10-Alex Bowman 62.
OGS competition index top 10 on intermediate tracks: 1-Larson 172 points, 2-Blaney 92, 3-Byron 88, 4-Bell 70, 5-Hamlin 63, 6-Berry 59, 7-Logano 58, Bowman 58, 9-Ross Chastain 51, 10-Wallace 41, Daniel Suarez 41.
