Chase Elliott is the poster boy for what’s wrong with NASCAR’s current point system. Despite the fact that he has not won a race, has led only 45 laps, 42 of which came at Martinsville and three of which are on super speedways where you can’t pass by yourself; and has only three top five finishes, Elliott is fourth in the current standings.
From a competitive standpoint, Elliott is way off the mark. But he doesn’t get into wrecks, his pit crew keeps the car running if something goes wrong, and he finishes races. All 11 of them so far. And that’s what you have to do to rack up points.
The Old Guy Sport competition index gives a more realistic picture of Elliott’s problems. The OGS competition index has Denny Hamlin first with 218 points, Kyle Larson second with 212, Christopher Bell third with 187 and William Byron fourth with 141. They’re the clear leaders. Elliott is way behind them in 12th place with just 45 points.
Elliott is currently in the throes of a 38 race winless streak, having last won at Texas in 2024. Prior to that win, he had gone 42 races without a victory. That means Elliott has now won only one race in his last 81 starts.
He has a contract with Hendrick Motorsports that goes through 2027. And he won’t be 30 until this November despite the fact he already has 10 full years of cup competition and won the NASCAR championship in 2020. He should be in his prime, but…
His performance of late is making a lot of people nervous. Elliott is, generally speaking, an easy going guy. Some wonder if he can still be competitive in the new cut throat era that was ushered in with the NextGen car in 2022.
There was a lot of buzz around Elliott’s return to Texas, where he got his last win last year, but Elliott, who is a realist if nothing else, pointed out that winning at Texas a year ago and racing at Texas in 2025 had little in common.
“It was 12 months ago,” Elliott said as reported by NASCAR’s website and Fox sports among others. “A lot changes in a year, and things that we are working on behind the scenes, whether its setups or race strategy of what ever it is, that is going to outweigh something that went on 12 months ago.
“It’s hard to reflect that far back and think that ‘Oh, we’ll just do what we did last year’ and that’s going to be perfect because most of the time that’s not the case,” Elliott said.
Elliott ended up 16th at Texas, continuing a familiar pattern of finishing races but essentially not being competitive. Once again, he failed to lead a lap.
Of the 12 drivers on the three elite teams, Gibbs, Hendrick and Penske (We’re counting Josh Berry as a Penske car even though he drives for the Wood brothers because the team is closely aligned with Penske) Elliott ranks 10th in laps led.
He’s well behind teammates Larson, who has led 596 laps, and Byron, with 386. Even Alex Bowman, who has struggled more than Elliott, has led 108. While it’s not a perfect indicator, leading laps means you’re putting yourself in position to win, giving yourself a chance, and the way he’s running now, Elliott has no chance at all.
“All you can do when you’re in this fight is just keep showing up, make sure you’re prepared to just show up on any given weekend and put together a solid day,” Elliott continued.
“But its all got to come together at the right time,” he stressed. “I have to do my job. We’ve got to call good races in the box. We have to have good pit stops.
“I’m no different than anybody else on our team,” Elliott said. “We want more, I think we’re capable of more. We have high expectations. We are proud of the good runs we’ve had, but we know there’s more in the tank.
“The season’s still very early, and we’ve seen enough high spots to kind of give us hope,” he added. Hoping you can win, though, is one thing. Going out and doing it is something else. Elliott’s last 81 races have proven that.
NASCAR NOTES: Three most likely winners at Kansas – 1-Kyle Larson, 2-William Byron, 3-Ryan Blaney. Last year’s winners at Kansas – First race, Larson. Second race, Ross Chastain. Top five in first race last year – 1-Larson, 2-Chris Buescher, 3-Chase Elliott, 4-Martin Truex, 5-Denny Hamlin.
Last week’s OGS Texas picks – 1-Byron, 2-Larson, 3-Hamlin. Texas winner – Joey Logano. OGS season record – 4-4.
Top 10 in OGS competition index after eight races – 1-Hamlin 218 points; 2-Larson 212, 3-Christopher Bell 187, 4-Byron 141, 5-Josh Berry 83, 6-Blaney 77, 7-Bubba Wallace 73, 8-Logano 70, 9-Tyler Reddick 67, 10-Alex Bowman 52.
Top 10 in OGS competition index on intermediate tracks after four races – 1-Larson 97, 2-Byron 88, 3-Hamlin 63, 4-Blaney 62, 5-Berry 59, 6-Logano 58, 7-Chastain 51, 8-Bowman 48, 9-Wallace, Daniel Suarez 41.
