Ryan Blaney is the guy. A lot of people think Joey Logano is Ford’s ace, but Ryan Blaney is the guy. If anybody’s going to steal this Cup championship from red-hot Kyle Larson or one of Toyota’s big three, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe, then Blaney has the best chance. And if Blaney is going to make a move, now is the time.
While Larson has taken charge since the chase races began with Darlington’s Southern 500, even he remains cautious because he knows while he has a solid lead, it is not insurmountable although neither Blaney nor Logano is regarded as one of his major threats.
But the final four races of the season, which will determine the outcome, play to Ford’s – and Blaney’s strengths. Two of them, today’s race at Phoenix and another at Martinsville, are on short tracks. And while we haven’t had a short track race since Iowa on Aug. 9th, Blaney and Logano have dominated on the smaller tracks.
Using the Old Guy Sport competition index to measure performance. Blaney has scored 254 points and Logano 235 on the short tracks. Next best among the chase drivers is Christopher Bell with 159. Throw is Talladega, which is totally unpredictable, and if Blaney in particular continues his short track run and gets a break at Talladega, Ford could be ready to rumble at Homestead, the series finale.
Right now, Blaney is fifth in the chase standings, 85 points behind Larson, with Logano sixth, 92 points back. But as Larson himself has pointed out, one or two good runs can change things in a hurry. One problem that hangs over the Fords is the fact that they have the fast Toyotas, Hamlin, Bell and Briscoe, ahead of them as well as Larson.
Still, if past performance is any kind of indicator, Blaney might be the guy to watch. Looking at results in the last four short track races and using the OGS competition index as a guide, Blaney is the only driver to score points in all four of them.
At Iowa, Blaney finished third and led the most laps under green. At Richmond, he led the third most laps under green in a race won by Logano. At New Hampshire, Blaney won the race and again led the most laps under green. And at Bristol he also led the most laps under green. So, Blaney has dominated three out of the last four short track races and scored two top five finishes.
And he got a boost from his third place finish at Charlotte. Blaney and Ford have struggled on the intermediate tracks, and the final chase race will be at Homestead. In the first 12 intermediate races of the season, Blaney scored 69 points on the OGS competition index. He has 42 in the last three.
“Overall, really proud of our day after my mistake, like I said, and really proud of the last three weeks. The places we’ve really needed to get better at, the mile-and-a-halves, we’ve been able to do that,” Blaney told NASCAR’s website. “Three solid finishes. Sticking in there. Just got to keep going to work.
“Myself and this whole group, we go into every weekend thinking we can win,” Blaney said. “And this group has been awesome to work with. I love my guys. Phoenix (a short track) has been good to us in the past. I don’t know what’s going to happen at Talladega, no one does. But then we’ve got Martinsville (another short track) and then Miami (Homestead, another intermediate.)
“The best thing we can do is one race at a time, just try to go do our job the best that we can, and hopefully if we do that we can find victory lane a couple more times,” Blaney commented. Although he has gotten more credit recently, he won the NASCAR championship in 2023, Blaney is still NASCAR’s most unappreciated driver. He does more with less than any driver on an elite team.
Maybe, if he wins another championship, people will finally figure that out.
NASCAR NOTES
Three most likely winners at Phoenix: 1-Ryan Blaney, 2-Joey Logano, 3-Christopher Bell. Last year’s winner at Phoenix: Blaney. Top five at Phoenix last year: 1-Blaney, 2-Brad Keselowski, 3-Kyle Larson, 4-Logano, 5-Kyle Busch.
Last week’s Old Guy Sport Charlotte picks: 1-Larson, 2-Denny Hamlin, 3-Bell. Charlotte winner: Chase Briscoe. OGS season record: 13-14.
OGS competition index after 27 races: 1-Hamlin 621 points, 2-Larson 541, 3-Bell 524, 4-Briscoe 476, 5-Tyler Reddick 413, 6-Blaney 372, 7-Ty Gibbs 354, 8-Logano 308, 9-Shane van Gisbergen 226, 10-Chase Elliott 192.
OGS competition index on short tracks (tracks most like Phoenix): 1-Blaney 254 points, 2-Logano 235, 3-Gibbs 188, 4-Bell 159, 5-Hamlin 146, 6-Larson 140, 7-Briscoe 101, 8-Elliott 72, 9-Josh Berry 61, 9-Bubba Wallace 49, 10-Carson Hocevar 33.
