Right now, Toyota is the Jolly Green Giant of NASCAR, stomping its way to a championship – most likely – by crushing every Ford and Chevy in its path. Except for two. Chevy’s Kyle Larson is taking some big swings and for Ford, Ryan Blaney is having some success trying to trip them up. But that’s it. Take either one away and there’s not much left.
Toyota’s dominance is clearly shown by the Old Guy Sport competition index, which judges cars and teams by how they race instead of simply crossing the finish line, which is the primary criteria in the NASCAR points system. And when you use the OGS competition index, if it wasn’t for Larson and Blaney, Chevy and Ford might as well leave their cars in the garage.
It should also be noted that the OGS competition index does not count races run at the three superspeedways, Atlanta, Daytona and Talladega, because where you finish and leading laps is determined primarily by avoiding the “big wreck” and being in the right lane at the right time on the last lap, and most of that is out of the driver’s control.
By almost any competitive measure, Toyota’s dominance is staggering, something not seen in NASCAR in a long, long time, if ever. Going into Sunday’s race in Madison, Ill., an intermediate track just outside of St. Louis, Toyota holds down the first five places in the OGS competition index.
The four JGR drivers, Denny Hamlin (574 points), Christopher Bell (445), Ty Gibbs (335) and Chase Briscoe (316) are one-two-four and five, with another Toyota driven by Tyler Reddick third. Larson, with 305 points, and Blaney, with 300, are sixth and seventh, respectively.
As a team, the four JGR cars have 1,670 points. That’s more than Hendrick’s four cars, led by Larson, and Penske’s four cars, led by Blaney, have put together. The Wood brothers car, which is built by Penske, is included in the Penske totals, which have Hendrick with 651 points and Penske with just 612.
Looking at some other indicators, Toyotas have won 13 of the 22 non-superspeedway races while Chevy has five and Ford four. And Gibbs drivers have registered 46 top five finishes compared to 20 for Hendrick, 10 by Larson, and 14 for Penske including six from Blaney. So Toyota has won more races than Chevy and Ford combined and Gibbs has scored more top fives than Hendrick and Penske combined.
The Toyotas look to be in total control. Of the 10 playoff races, six are on intermediate tracks, three on short tracks and one on a superspeedway. So if you’re going to win in the playoffs, you need to be strong on the intermediate tracks and going into Sunday’s race at St. Louis, Toyota has won nine of the 11 run on those tracks so far.
While all this looks like a Toyota tidal wave, Larson is quietly becoming a threat to let the air out of Toyota’s tires. Checking the OGS competition index, he has scored points for leading races under green 13 times, more than any other driver. Hamlin is next with 12. And in the last two races, one at New Hampshire, a short track, and last Sunday at Darlington, an intermediate oval, Larson has a pair of fifth place finishes.
Speaking before the playoffs started, Larson said “I don’t think they change the way I think about a race or the way I approach a race,” according to NASCAR’s website. “This series is just really tough and the teams are really good. There’s a team or two that are just way faster than everybody right now,” he added.
“All 16 teams in this championship are, I think, very, very good and can go on runs, but the Toyotas are incredibly fast. We’ve seen that all year,” Blaney, Ford’s strongest entry, said according to NASCAR.com. “I think the Fords, for myself and the 22 (Joey Logano) and the 2 (Austin Cindric) and the 60 (Ryan Preece) and the 17 (Chris Buescher), I feel we’ve had a real good month and closed the gap there.”
In reality though, Blaney is the only Ford capable of running down the Toyotas, if anyone in a Ford can, and Larson looms as their biggest threat. That said, the Toyotas look almost untouchable, with Blaney and even Larson no more than an annoyance as they race to the finish far ahead of anybody else.
NASCAR NOTES
Three most likely winners at St. Louis: 1-Denny Hamlin, 2-Tyler Reddick, 3-Christopher Bell. Last year’s winner at St. Louis: Hamlin. Top five at St. Louis last year: 1-Hamlin, 2-Chase Briscoe, 3-Chase Elliott, 4-Ryan Blaney, 5-Joey Logano.
Last week’s Old Guy Sport Darlington picks: 1-Hamlin, 2-Reddick, 3-Bell. Last week’s winner at Darlington: Bell. OGS season record: 12-10.
OGS competition index top 10 after 22 races: 1-Hamlin 574 points, 2-Bell 445, 3-Reddick 383, 4-Ty Gibbs 335, 5-Briscoe 316, 6-Kyle Larson 305, 7-Blaney 300, 8-Shane van Gisbergen 226, 9-Logano 208, 10-Elliott 192.
OGS competition top 10 1-on intermediate tracks (tracks most similar to St. Louis): 1-Hamlin 428 points, 2-Reddick 271, 3-Bell 266, 4-Briscoe, Larson 151, 6-Elliott 120, 7-William Byron 99, 8-Corey Heim 78, 9-Brad Keselowski 63, 9-Gibbs 61, 10-Blaney 58.
